Canola had something of a tumultuous 2025, pushed one way or another by a variety of factors.
Nearby canola futures traded in a wide range from about $550 to $750 per tonne over the past year, but were within a few dollars of where they started by December with the most-active March contract in the middle of that range at nearly $633 as of Dec. 11.
China
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The biggest reason for that wide swing stems from the trade action taken by China, Canada’s largest foreign buyer of canola.
In March, China slapped 100 per cent tariffs on imports of Canadian canola oil and meal, as well as other products. The impetus for this trade action centred on Canada’s 100 per cent duty on imports of Chinese electric vehicles.
Hopes for a repeat of another fantastic canola export program pretty much went out the window. In 2024/25, total canola exports of 9.33 million tonnes far exceeded expectations, with a hefty chunk going to China.
The fait accompli
Then in August 2025 came the fait accompli, as China imposed a 75.8 per cent surcharge on its imports of Canadian canola seed. That certainly shut the door to any more canola going to the People’s Republic until trade issues between Canada and China are finally resolved.
Trade missions to China provided some small measure of hope in getting these tariffs dealt with. The federal government said that some progress was being made with China. But over the last few weeks, any trade talk of this nature has been non-existent.
U.S. biofuel dithering
Adding to canola’s conundrums in 2025 was the United States, specifically, it’s new biofuel policy left over from the Biden administration. That new policy initially excluded Canadian canola from being used as feedstock in U.S. biofuel production.
As the Trump administration dithered relentlessly in providing any sort of clarification, one hope was that U.S. soyoil would be used so much for biofuels that there wouldn’t be enough supply to fill its food demand. That would have opened the door for Canadian canola to swoop in to save the day. But in the end, imports of Canadian canola will be permitted for U.S. biofuels.
Those numbers don’t add up
As months passed during 2025, something was amiss with Statistics Canada’s canola production number. As exports and domestic use exceeded projections, the monthly balance sheet from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada needed to be seriously rejigged. That saw AAFC drop its feed, waste and dockage category to minus 959,000 tonnes just to get its canola data to balance.
That’s because StatCan’s December 2024 production estimate of 17.85 million tonnes proved to be too low. It was very clear that there was a lot more canola harvested in 2024/25.
During the summer, StatCan finally upped its call to 19.19 million tonnes and then to 20.10 million before settling on 19.24 million — so very close to its initial estimate last summer.
Now canola’s woes are focused on what to do with a record harvest of 21.80 million tonnes, especially with China still out of the export picture.
Let’s hope that 2026 is less chaotic for canola than 2025 was.
