A technical chart tells a story. It provides a map of what happened and hints on what may come.
Canola: There were certainly twists and turns to the canola trade in 2024. However, the path meandered in a sideways range and the market never actually went anywhere, finishing 2024 not far from where it started the year.
The nearby futures were trading around $600 per tonne in late December after the front month traded within a range of $540 to $680 per tonne throughout the calendar year. Most major long-range chart indicators pointed lower heading into 2025, with a test of the lows more likely than a move back to the highs — at least from a technical standpoint and barring an outside catalyst.
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Stronger canola prices welcome surprise
Mid-November canola market holding above resistance based on durable demand, resulting in pleasantly higher canola prices for Canadian farmers
Fund position: Fund traders were holding a net short of just over 100,000 contracts at the end of 2023 and were in a similar position a year later. The large bearish bets indicate speculators expect prices to move lower, although short covering could become a supportive feature at some point.
Soybeans: Unlike canola, the Chicago soybean market had a destination in mind in 2024, and the journey saw front month values lose about US$2 per bushel to trade at their weakest levels in four years in late 2024. Large South American crops, softening demand for U.S. soybeans and global economic uncertainty all weighed on values. Looking at a weekly chart, soybeans could be headed below US$9 per bushel in 2025.
Corn: The grain hit its own four-year lows in August but turned the corner higher through the fall. Fund traders have put on a relatively large net long position of about 165,000 contracts — a signal that they’re banking on more room to the upside.
Wheat: Minneapolis spring wheat futures hit their highs of the year at seeding time in spring, but a relatively favourable North American growing season and spillover from other markets saw values at their lowest levels since 2020 at the end of the year. Attempts at moving much below US$6 per bushel have proven short-lived so far, although the managed money net short position of over 30,000 contracts is a record for the market.
