MarketsFarm — Downward revisions to soybean numbers stand out the most in February’s grain market report from the International Grains Council (IGC). Otherwise, the monthly estimates have minor alterations.
The IGC cut its forecast on 2021-22 global soybean production by four per cent from its January report, bringing its projection to 353.1 million tonnes. The council noted production problems in South America, caused by drought, were at the heart of the changes. That also led to a sharp reduction in global ending stocks, down 16.4 per cent at 43.3 million tonnes.
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The IGC slashed its call on Brazil soybean production by 10.5 million tonnes, bringing its new estimate to 126.5 million. Ending stocks for Brazil plummet from 3.3 million tonnes, down to just 600,000.
As for soybean production in Argentina, the council lopped off 2.5 million tonnes and now called for 41.5 million. Carryover was dropped to 1.3 million tonnes, from 3.9 million.
In comparison, the U.S. Department of Agriculture projected Brazil to harvest 134 million tonnes of soybeans with Argentina at 45 million. In Brazil, CONAB has put the country’s production at 125.5 million tonnes, with several private consultancies going lower. The Rosario Grain Exchange in Argentina lowered its projection to 40.5 million tonnes.
Despite those sharp reductions, Brazil was pegged to remain the world’s top soybean producer, with Argentina at a distant third. The U.S. remains the No. 2 producer at 120.7 million tonnes.
Table: International Grains Council crop and carryout projections, February 2022, in millions of tonnes.
| Jan ’22. . | Feb ’22. . | Change. . | Jan ’22. | Feb ’22. . | Change | |
| prod | prod | (pct) | carry | carry | (pct) | |
| Total | 2,286 | 2,281 | -0.2 | 606.1 | 596.4 | -0.78 |
| Corn | 1,207 | 1,203 | -0.4 | 286.8 | 280.9 | -2.1 |
| Wheat | 781.3 | 780.6 | -0.1 | 276.0 | 277.9 | +0.69 |
| Soybeans | 367.7 | 353.1 | -4.0 | 51.8 | 43.3 | -16.4 |
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