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The Stats Canada seeded acreage report had a few surprises today from what I thought the acres might be. Canola coming in 1.1 million acres below last year is a bit of a surprise. Cost of inputs and rotational concerns are no doubt reducing some canola acres and it does bring the total back in line with the five-year average so it is not unreasonable.
Barley acres slightly up over last year is also surprising as returns do not pencil very well. Pea acreage is also bigger than expected but reduced input costs may be the key to the extra intended acres there.
Overall the report is seen as supportive for canola, neutral for wheat and negative for barley and peas.
I don’t expect a lot of futures movement based on this report as these numbers will and have changed since the report was put together a month ago.
The Dow Jones closed up 119 points today. The US dollar finished down 6/10th of a cent. The Canadian dollar was up 1.17 today to close at US82.82. Crude oil finished up $1.93, closing at US$51.55/barrel.
Corn finished down 4 to 5 cents/bu, beans finished up 2 to 10 cents/bu, and wheat was mixed,closing up 7 to down 4 cents.
Canola is up $2 to $4/t for the day, and barley finished down $1.00/t closing at $136.00/t. The rising Canadian dollar held canola from making further gains today.
Weather is in the driver’s seat right now and we could be going for a wild ride over the next few weeks. Keep your seat belt on and hang on.
That’s all for this week.
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
All Wheat 25.553 24.943 26.387 21.617 25.097 25.161
Barley 11.559 10.972 9.540 10.865 9.357 9.476
Oats 4.930 4.580 4.751 5.408 4.345 3.955
Canola 13.145 13.570 13.276 14.726 16.160 14.990
Flaxseed 1.800 2.080 2.080 1.305 1.560 1.725
Corn 2.928 2.778 2.786 3.439 2.975 3.084
Soybeans 3.037 2.907 3.059 2.916 2.971 3.284
S-fallow 8.920 10.160 10.710 7.710 6.070 5.995
Peas 3.993 4.235