MarketsFarm — Statistics Canada’s stocks of principal field crops report detailed tight ending stocks for lentils durum and canola.
As of July 31, lentil stocks totalled just 61,000 tonnes, down by 91.5 per cent from last year. Exports were up by over 30 per cent year-over-year, which accounted for some of the decrease.
“It’s an extremely tight lentil situation,” said Bruce Burnett, director of markets and weather for MarketsFarm, noting these ending stocks are the lowest since the 2009-10 growing year.
“What we produce this year will be what we have available for export next year.”
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Durum numbers were between 200,000 and 300,000 tonnes below expectation, totalling 600,000 tonnes. That’s a 63 per cent year-over-year decrease, spurred mainly by higher export demand and lower global stocks.
However, this year’s durum crop is expected to be nearly seven million tonnes, which quelled any bullish influence on durum prices.
“We have new crop arriving, but it’s still very tight,” said Burnett.
Total stocks of canola declined by over one-third from the previous year to total 2.7 million tonnes. This decrease was due to lower on-farm stocks, which fell by over 50 per cent to 1.4 million tonnes. Commercial stocks rose 7.6 per cent to 1.3 million tonnes, partially driven by high domestic demand and strong crush margins.
Although the canola carryout was lower year-over-year, it was still considered “relatively high” due to upward revisions of canola production last year. Expectations for a relatively large crop this year also calmed any concerns about tight ending stocks.
“The market isn’t worried about those ending stocks,” said Burnett.
— Marlo Glass reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.
Table: Total Canadian farm and commercial stocks of grains and oilseeds in millions of tonnes. Source: Statistics Canada.
| Total stocks, | Total stocks, | Five-year avg., | |
| July 31, 2020. . | July 31, 2019. . | 2015 to 2019 | |
| Barley | 0.957 | 0.863 | 1.378 |
| Canola | 2.741 | 4.175 | 2.537 |
| Flaxseed | 0.064 | 0.060 | 0.161 |
| Oats | 0.426 | 0.397 | 0.709 |
| All wheat. . | 5.028 | 5.891 | 6.367 |
| Durum | 0.660 | 1.792 | 1.434 |
| Lentils | 0.061 | 0.716 | 0.468 |
| Peas | 0.233 | 0.312 | 0.424 |
