CBOT weekly outlook: Seasonal harvest pressure weighs on soy, corn

CBOT December 2020 corn with 20-, 50- and 100-day moving averages. (Barchart)

MarketsFarm — Market activity on the Chicago Board of Trade has been characteristic for September, with harvest activity keeping pressure on values.

“The trend for September turns to the downside as harvest starts to pick up,” said Steve Georgy of Barrington Commodities at Barrington, Ill.

However, next week’s world agriculture supply and demand estimates (WASDE) from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) will likely show lower yields for corn and soybean crops, which will be supportive of prices.

“With the weather we’ve had, I don’t see yields acting steady or improving,” Georgy said.

Current weather conditions likely won’t be a driving force for markets for much longer, as corn and soybean crops are mostly matured.

“It’s getting too late, I don’t want to hear about how much the rain is helping,” Georgy said.

“This crop matured very quickly with the heat we had.”

Strong export demand from China has provided significant support to commodity prices, as reports indicate China may be in the market for up to 15 million tonnes of corn.

China was purchasing the lion’s share of soybeans from Brazil, but reports of tight Brazilian soybean stocks sent China back to the U.S.

“They won’t get any Brazil soybeans until January,” he said.

“The need seems to be there.”

— Marlo Glass reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.

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