Glacier Farm Media | MarketsFarm – While Western Canadian cash prices for spring wheat stepped back modestly during 2024, those for amber durum were down hard.
Significant losses in the United States wheat markets were too much to withstand, although there was support from a sharp drop in the Canadian dollar.
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada issued its monthly estimates on Dec. 19, its first report since Statistics Canada released its production report two weeks earlier. AAFC lowered its estimate 2024/25 all wheat ending stocks to 4.45 million tonnes from 4.60 million and the carryover for durum was cut to 650,000 tonnes from 800,000.
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Average CWRS (13.5 per cent) prices were down C$29.00 to C$44.60 per tonne, according to price quotes from a cross-section of delivery points compiled by PDQ (Price and Data Quotes). Compared to a year ago, those prices ranged from about C$273.40 per tonne in southeastern Saskatchewan to C$301.90 per tonne in southern Alberta.
Quoted basis levels varied from location to location and ranged from C$57.80 to C$86.30 per tonne above the futures when using the grain company methodology of quoting the basis as the difference between the U.S. dollar denominated futures and the Canadian dollar cash bids.
When accounting for currency exchange rates by adjusting Canadian prices to United States dollars (C$1=US$0.6959), CWRS bids ranged from US$190.30 to US$210.10 per tonne. That would put the currency adjusted basis levels at about US$5.50 to US$25.30 below the futures.
Looking at it the other way around, if the Minneapolis futures are converted to Canadian dollars, CWRS basis levels across Western Canada ranged from C$3.80 to C$17.60 below the futures.
Average CPRS (11.5 per cent) wheat gave up C$13.80 to C$19.30 per tonne. Bids ranged from C$249.80 per tonne in southeastern Saskatchewan to C$278.90 per tonne in southern Alberta.
Average CWAD prices plummeted by C$114.60 to C$134.80 per tonne. Bids ranged from C$313.00 per tonne in northeastern Saskatchewan to C$332.20 per tonne in southern Alberta.
The March spring wheat contract in Minneapolis, which most CWRS contracts Canada are based off of, was quoted at US$5.8675 per bushel on Dec. 19, dropping US$1.3125 on the year.
The Kansas City hard red winter wheat futures, which are now traded in Chicago, are more closely linked to CPRS in Canada. The March Kansas City wheat contract was quoted at US$5.4325 per bushel on Dec. 19, falling 81.75 cents from a year ago.
The March Chicago Board of Trade soft wheat contract settled at US$5.3300 per bushel on Dec. 19, giving up 77.00 cents.
The loonie retreated 5.42 cents on the year, settling at 69.59 U.S. cents, driven lower by strong gains in the U.S. dollar.
