Klassen: Lower beef production forecasts support feeder complex

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Published: May 27, 2025

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(Geralyn Wichers photo)

For the week ending May 24, Western Canadian feeder cattle markets traded $5-$10/cwt higher on average compared to seven days earlier. Backgrounded replacements over 900 pounds were up $3-$6/cwt but noted strength was evident in the 600-900-pound weight categories. Calves under 600 pounds were up $8 to as much as $15/cwt.

Improving feedlot margins contributed to the stronger feeder market. Alberta packers were buying finished cattle on a dressed basis at $500/cwt delivered which was fresh record high. Using a 60 per cent grading, this equates to a live price of $300/cwt. Feedlot breakeven pen closeouts are in the range of $260-$270/cwt. Feedlots are anxious to reload and larger groups of quality packages are limited at this time of year.

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At the Lloydminster sale, larger frame, medium to lower flesh Simmental based steers weighing 938 pounds traded for $391/cwt. At the same sale, larger frame silver steers on backgrounding ration with full preconditioning with a mean weight of 825 pounds were last bid at $459/cwt. At the Ponoka sale, tan heifers averaging 924 pounds were valued at $369/cwt and black heifers evaluated at 802 pounds notched the board at $411.

At the Rimbey sale, short-weaned mixed steers with full processing records averaging 740 pounds sold for $468/cwt. This was the first week that 700 pounds steers broke the $500/cwt barrier. At the Ste Rose Auction Mart in Manitoba, Charolais steers averaging 701 pounds marking the charts at $519. Similarly, the Lloydminster market report had red steers just over 700 pounds settling at $515/cwt. The Vermillion Livestock Exchange reported Charolais based heifers averaging 764 pounds selling for $444/cwt.

North of Calgary, Angus cross weaned steers weighing 630 pounds reportedly sold for $530/cwt. At the Ponoka sale, a handful of mixed weaned steers on light barley and silage diet with full processing data averaging 622 pounds supposedly traded for $523. In central Saskatchewan, a smaller package of Charolais based heifers weighing just over 600 pounds apparently silenced the crowd at $480/cwt while the Lloydminster sale had red white faced heifers evaluated at 637 pounds trading for $465/cwt

The Vermillion market report had a small group of British based heifers weighing 538 pounds selling for $549/cwt. At the Ste. Rose du Lac sale, a handful of Charolais steers with a mean weight of 522 pounds supposedly sold for $624. A couple producers reported that steers weighing 500-525 pounds were reaching the range of $670-$680/cwt in eastern Saskatchewan with Ontario demand setting the stage.

The Commitment of Traders Report for feeder cattle futures had the managed money length at 32,800 contracts as of May 20. This is a fresh record long. The feeder cattle futures are vulnerable to fund liquidation. The USDA is forecasting 2026 first quarter beef production at 6.2 billion pounds, down 320 million pounds from the first quarter of 2025.

About the author

Jerry Klassen

Jerry Klassen

Jerry Klassen graduated from the University of Alberta in 1996 with a degree in Agriculture Business. He has over 25 years of commodity trading and analytical experience working with various grain companies in all aspects of international grain merchandising. From 2010 through 2019, he was manager of Canadian operations for Swiss based trading company GAP SA Grains and Products ltd. Throughout his career, he has travelled to 37 countries and from 2017-2021, he was Chairman of the Canadian Grain and Oilseed Exporter Association. Jerry has a passion for farming; he owns land in Manitoba and Saskatchewan; the family farm/feedlot is in Southern Alberta. Since 2009, he has used the analytical skills to provide cattle and feed grain market analysis for feedlot operators in Alberta and Ontario. For speaking engagements or to subscribe to the Canadian Feedlot and Cattle Market Analysis, please contact him at 204 504 8339 or see the website www.resilcapital.com.

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