ICE weekly outlook: Holiday canola trading is anyone’s guess

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Published: December 23, 2021

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ICE March 2022 canola (candlesticks) with November 2022 canola (yellow line, left column). (Barchart)

MarketsFarm — The canola trading week starting Tuesday (Dec. 28) will be a short one and Keith Ferley of RBC Dominion Securities said anything can happen.

“I don’t know if we’re going to see that with computer trading. Volumes usually lighten up, but nothing is normal in this COVID world,” he cautioned.

Canadian markets, including canola trading on U.S.-based ICE Futures, will be closed Monday in lieu of Boxing Day falling on a Sunday. Dec. 31, being New Year’s Eve, will most likely see trading wrap up earlier than usual.

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That means there’s an opportunity for profit-taking in canola, after bids had been swinging higher as the nearby January and March contracts remained well over $1,000 per tonne.

In fact, that began to creep into trading on Wednesday as old-crop and new-crop contracts stepped away from highs earlier in the session.

At one point, old-crop March hit a new high of $1,020.50 per tonne, but backed away as soyoil on the Chicago Board of Trade gave up a portion of its gains, and European rapeseed stepped back from contract highs as well.

Despite traders and buyers taking it easy over the coming week, those at it will be keeping a sharp eye on what happens in South America. Ferley noted soybean crops in Argentina and southern Brazil remain faced with dry conditions, thanks to La Nina.

Lastly: MarketsFarm would like to thank Keith for his commentary over the years, which helped us shape our stories and podcasts. His marvelous turns of phrase and euphemisms added a good amount of colour. We wish Keith all the best in his forthcoming retirement.

— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.

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