Glacier FarmMedia — Rising comparable oil prices and strong demand provided recent support for canola prices, said an analyst.
David Derwin, a commodities investment advisor for Ventum Financial in Winnipeg, said higher crude and soyoil prices, as well as new Canadian canola exports to China, lifted the value of the oilseed.
“You see a bit of a chain effect. Crude oil goes up, then bean oil goes up and then canola too,” Derwin said. “Soyoil’s been a part (of these rallies) but other factors have helped, as well.”
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He also said the funds have also flipped canola’s net position from short to long amidst speculation of the United States biofuel mandate for 2026.
Although canola prices ended mixed on Feb. 25, signaling a potential end to its rally, Derwin said canola previously broke through resistance levels when the oilseed was C$10 to C$20 per tonne lower. He believes there is still upside to go for canola.
“Those resistance levels are not set in stone and they can fluctuate,” he said. “(Canola) probably added C$80 per tonne since the beginning of the year. That’s a good move in a short period of time. It’s still pointing higher and over the course of the ride that we’ve seen since the beginning of the year, there will be periods of time where it gives back C$10 to C$15 and would still be in a shorter-term uptrend.”
China’s reduction of tariffs on Canadian canola last month were supportive of prices, as well as domestic demand. Derwin said an elevator sale of canola on Feb. 20 was “one of the largest in at least 10 years.”
“There certainly is buying by the grain companies and by end users. Demand has been fairly strong and some of it has been the China factor,” he added.
Another element that could affect canola prices will be Statistics Canada’s principal field crop area report on March 5. The report will be StatCan’s first to show estimated acreage numbers for the 2026-27 crop year. However, the figures were determined by a survey conducted before China reduced its tariffs on Canadian canola, and that could result in canola acres being underestimated.
“There’s always the potential for some kind of surprise or some interesting numbers to come from (the report). I would think as we go forward here, a lot of the same factors that have been helping (canola) trend higher will still be very much in place,” Derwin said.
