Glacier Farm Media | MarketsFarm — When canola trading begins returning to normal come Jan. 5, the oilseed’s futures are likely to fall back, said Tony Tryhuk, trader with RBC Dominion securities in Winnipeg.
“The trend is still clearly lower,” Tryhuk said. “The fundamentals are poor. The funds are short. All of the technicals, the fundamental supply and demand info point to lower values.”
Likely to test lows
Along with that, the trader said losses in the Chicago soy complex are further contributing to weakness in canola. He added that when there have been gains, there’s rarely been follow through.
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“We probably have a better than average chance of retesting our lows,” Tryhuk continued. “The only caveat is each time the market drops below $600 (per tonne), we find that there is some exporter pricing that steps up and comes in to try and cover some of that business.”
One issue he pointed out was the large gap between the price offered by the exporter and what the farmer wants for their canola, noting the latter is more unwilling to sell.
Very little exported to China
Of course, the China issue will carryover into 2026, further heightening a record canola harvest and the strong prospect of a large carryout by the end of July.
“The absence of China is not being made up by export business to Pakistan, Bangladesh, the UAE, and Europe,” Tryhuk said. “It’s just not doing enough to support the market.”
The most recent data from the Canadian Grain Commission showed canola exports to China were only 113,900 tonnes as of the end of October, compared to 2.29 million tonnes the same point in 2024/25. The CGC’s weekly reports placed cumulative canola exports 20 weeks into 2025/26 at 2.54 million tonnes compared to 4.39 million the same time last year.
