Glacier FarmMedia | MarketsFarm — China is expected to import one million tonnes less of canola in 2025/26 than in the previous marketing year, the United States Department of Agriculture attaché in Beijing projected. China was projected to acquire 3.10 million tonnes of canola this year versus 4.10 million in 2024/25.
“Trade frictions between Canada and China are the primary driver for the updated forecast,” the attaché wrote, considering the 75.8 per cent tariff China has on its imports of Canadian canola seed, plus 100 per cent duties on the oil and meal.
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Through the first nine months of 2024/25, Canada supplied 97 per cent of China’s foreign canola purchases. However, more recently China resolved its trade differences with Australia and is importing more of that country’s canola.
The attaché estimated China’s canola production at 15.90 million tonnes in 2025/26, the same as the year before. The harvested area is to nudge up 50,000 hectares at 7.50 million.
The Beijing desk placed the beginning stocks at 5.83 million tonnes, which would bring China’s total supply to 24.83 million tonnes. With total consumption projected to be 19 million tonnes, down from 20.10 million, ending stocks were also pegged at 5.83 million.
Soybeans
The attaché placed China’s soybean imports for 2025/26 at 106 million tonnes, down one million from the previous year, citing the government’s actions to reduce the country’s reliance on imports. Also, the Beijing desk noted China not buying any 2025/26 soybeans from the U.S.
Despite that, China’s total supply of soybeans is to increase to 171,030 tonnes in 2025/26 from 168,880. Production is to hold relatively steady at 19.93 million tonnes and total domestic use is to bump up to 125.60 million tonnes from 123.70 million in 2024/25. That is to lead to a small increase in the carryout, at 45.31 million tonnes versus 45.10 million a year ago.
1 acre = 0.405 hectares
