Glacier FarmMedia – One week after China and the United States agreed to work on a new trade deal, grain and oilseed futures on the Chicago Board of Trade made variable gains.
The potential U.S.-China agreement was a partial, but supportive influence on prices. January soybeans rose 40 U.S. cents per bushel during the week before closing at US$11.3450/bu. on Nov. 5 and December corn was up 1.25 cents at US$4.3525. Also, December Chicago soft wheat jumped 22.5 cents at US$5.5475/bu., while Kansas City hard red wheat rallied by 17.25 cents at US$5.40 and Minneapolis spring wheat advanced 5.5 cents at US$5.56.
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U.S. grains: Soybean prices rise as China-U.S. truce assessed
Chicago soybean prices rose on Wednesday, recovering some of the previous session’s losses, as Beijing’s confirmation that it was cutting tariffs on U.S. farm goods put attention back on a trade truce between the countries.
Tom Lilja, an analyst for Progressive Ag in Fargo, N.D., said while soybeans’ rally spilled over into corn and wheat, China’s agreement to remove reciprocal tariffs from the two grains effective Nov. 10 also lifted prices.
“China also purchased U.S. wheat for the first time since October 2024,” Lilja said. “As you can see, it’s mostly been China-related.”
He also explained that while global wheat prices were still low enough for China to buy from the U.S., the recent increase in U.S. soybean futures led China to buy cheaper beans from Brazil.
“When you have a huge move like that … our prices got a little more expensive,” Lilja added.
Since the U.S. government shut down last month, the trade has been hindered by a lack of data from the Department of Agriculture, except for weekly export inspection reports. The USDA’s latest monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, to be released on Nov. 14 despite the shutdown, will clarify yield figures and provide guidance for grain and oilseed futures.
“Trade is eyeing that report to see if there will be a trim in U.S. corn and soybean yields,” Lilja explained. “In the last report that did not happen, analysts were thinking there would be a 2.5 (bushel per acre) cut on (the average) U.S. corn yield and a third of a bushel cut on the U.S. soybean yield.”
He anticipates December corn to see resistance at around US$4.37/bu., but soybean prices will be more uncertain.
“We could see further gains, but we will need confirmation from the USDA that our yields are, in fact, lower,” Lilja said.
