Glacier FarmMedia — There were good gains for the Chicago soy complex during the week ended Feb. 4, due to positive news that Wednesday.
New Trump/Xi deal
“Today’s story is … China agreed with Trump over the phone to buy 20 million tonnes of soybeans instead of 12 million,” said Ryan Ettner, broker with Allendale Inc. in McHenry, Ill.
On a Feb. 4 phone call, United States President Donald Trump discussed several matters with Chinese President Xi Jinping, including agriculture.
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Afterward, Trump posted on Truth Social that “… the consideration by China of the purchase of additional Agricultural products including lifting the Soybean count to 20 Million Tons for the current season (They have committed to 25 Million Tons for next season!)…”
Previous deal
In the fall, Trump and Xi agreed that China would buy 12 million tonnes of old crop U.S. soybeans. China made those acquisitions a lot quicker than the market expected and is now set to buy another eight million tonnes before the end of the 2025/26 soybean marketing year.
During that fall meeting, China agreed to purchase 25 million tonnes of U.S. soybeans for the next three years.
Bean prices higher
Over the course of the week ended Feb. 4, March soybeans at the Chicago Board of Trade had a net gain of 17.25 cents at US$10.9225 per bushel. March soyoil climbed 1.35 cents at 55.66 cents per pound, but March soymeal shed US$1.20 at US$296.20 per short ton.
USDA likely won’t cut export forecast
Ettner said the Feb. 4 U.S.-China agreement could have an affect on the Feb. 10 supply and demand estimates from the Department of Agriculture. He suggested the USDA was most likely set to lower some of its export forecasts, including that for soybeans.
“Now we get this China agreement and there really isn’t a reason why we would expect them to lower exports,” Ettner said. “That may mean they leave all of the numbers pretty close to January’s.”
In last month’s S/D report, the USDA lowered 2025/26 soybean exports to 42.86 million tonnes from 44.50 million in December. However, that’s still down significantly from 2024/25 exports of 51.22 million tonnes.
