Glacier FarmMedia — Oat acres in Canada are likely to recede this spring with cash prices to remain low, said Scott Shiels, grain procurement manager for Grain Millers Canada in Yorkton, Sask.
“The crop this year was just huge,” Shiels said of the 2025/26 harvest.
3.92 million tonnes
Statistics Canada pegged the oat harvest at 3.92 million tonnes, up from 3.36 million in 2024/25.
“We really didn’t have a big increase in acres, we just had a really good crop on almost every one of those acres,” he added. “It’s really burdensome on the market.”
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The December report from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada placed the planted oat area for 2025/26 at about 1.21 million hectares compared to 1.17 million the previous year. The yield improved to 3.74 tonnes per hectare from 3.38.
Less to be planted in spring
Shiels said a common projection in the trade has called for a three per cent decline in oat acres, although one estimate he said predicted a 12 per cent drop.
“The carryout is going to be huge, maybe 700,000 to 750,000 tonnes,” Shiels said. “That’s the largest in a long time.
AAFC projected oat ending stocks at the high end as exports are expected to only bump up to 2.65 million tonnes from 2.57 million and total domestic use is to climb to 1.05 million tonnes from 972,000.
‘Oats at a loss’
With that in mind, Shiels said some country elevators are already below C$3 per bushel for old crop oats. He noted new crop bids are in the C$3.25 to C$3.50 range.
“Those are planting oats at a loss,” Shiels warned.
