The rally that began in the canola market with the delayed harvest is over. The chart patterns were textbook-perfect in predicting the inevitable, which was for prices to peak in early January and turn lower. It all started with prices breaking down below the line of support (A on the attached chart)* in December 2009.
Drozd: Canola market breaks down after failing to push through resistance
Drozd: U.S. dollar index carves out a bottom, readies to rally further
Jan. 7 — The U.S. dollar index shows signs of bottoming and it’s only a matter of time before it strengthens further. Prices could occasionally have a correction back down to alleviate overbought conditions, but I wouldn’t expect the weakness to last. A two-week reversal, occurring at the recent low in early December, was one
Drozd: Canadian dollar fails to reach par
Dec. 10 — The Canadian dollar was supposed to go par. At least this was the hype when the market peaked at US97.98 cents on Oct. 15. When a commodity makes the headlines of major newspapers and magazines, it is often a tell-tale sign that it is near the end of the rally. When most
Drozd: Two-week reversal indicates soybean prices will be pressured
There is a seasonal tendency for grain prices to come under pressure during harvest, as increased deliveries weigh on futures prices and basis levels deteriorate as merchants are offered more grain for sale than they require at that time. Although delayed, the advancing U.S. soybean harvest is expected to weigh on prices. Two-week reversal The
Drozd: Oat prices turning up, now that harvest lows are in place
There is a seasonal tendency for grain prices to come under pressure during harvest, as increased deliveries weigh on futures prices and basis levels deteriorate as merchants are offered more grain for sale than they require at that time. Stored grain is generally in tighter hands once harvest winds down and often requires an incentive
Drozd: Livestock producers will soon benefit from lower feed costs
Prices over a period of time are typically confined to a trading range. Prices are content to move up and down within this range until there is a shift in equilibrium, at which time the trend will turn decisively in the direction of the breakout from the range. Trendlines During the course of a trend
Drozd: Bearish USDA corn report coincides with bearish chart pattern
Although technical analysts, such as myself, rely primarily on our analysis of the charts for determining price reversals and in forecasting price direction, we do keep one eye open to the fundamental information as well. I’ll have to admit, though, that whenever technical and fundamental analysis are at odds, and they are more times than
Drozd: Record soy acres weigh on meal prices
When one studies many weekly bar charts, it becomes evident that prices over a period of several months are typically moving up or down. This direction is the long term or major trend of the market. Within the major trend are a series of fluctuating price movements that can be of several weeks’ duration. The
Drozd: Harami warns farmers of impending drop in wheat prices
As I have mentioned before in this column, the Japanese are true pioneers of technical analysis of the markets. Their techniques have evolved from fairly simple beginnings, trading forward rice contracts (futures) in the 17th century, to now include many sophisticated ways to analyze the markets, including the amazingly powerful modern-day charting method called the
Drozd: Canola prices up from extended V bottom
V bottoms take two forms: the more classic or true V, and the extended V. In the former formation, three essential components must be present: Prices must be in a downtrend and a futures contract is more apt to be in a free fall, or near vertical decline. A pivot point is reached which will
Cyber-Savvy Farmer
