Latest articles


Drozd: Oat futures rally to a one-year high

Market Outlook: The increase might seem sudden but charts predicted upward movement

Oat futures at the CBOT experienced a 40 per cent gain from September 13 to October 28, 2016. The December 2016 oat futures rallied $.69 per bushel (all figures U.S. funds), going from a low of $1.71 to $2.40, a one-year high. The December oat futures contract had been in a major downtrend since it […] Read more


Spring wheat futures stuck in a rut

MGEX spring wheat futures are rangebound and going nowhere fast

The nearby MGEX spring wheat futures have been stuck in a US$.60-per-bushel trading range since July 2015. Prices have thus far been unable to exceed resistance in the US$5.42 area, as the selling overcomes the buying. Subsequently, the US$4.82 level is proving to be support, an area where the buying picks up and the market […] Read more



CBOT wheat futures slide down to a 10-year low

Downward movement comes after a very clear technical signal presented itself on the charts

The Chicago Board of Trade nearby wheat futures have moved $1.65 (all figures U.S. funds) per bushel lower since a reversal pattern appeared on the weekly nearby futures chart on June 10, 2016. This formation is referred to as a harami on a candlestick chart. It occurred at the height of the spring rally, indicating […] Read more


Drozd: Did you hear about the bull that fell off the mountain? His name was canola

Knowledge of technical trading signals helped some producers avoid the recent downturn in the canola market

Some market participants may have been surprised by the sudden downturn in the canola market, but others were prepared for it. Were you? Technical analysis is akin to reading a road map. The patterns which form on the charts represent the road signs. Over the years, a number of rather classic formations have been identified […] Read more



Drozd: Bear trap catches shorts looking down at bottom of soybean market

As they scrambled to cover (buy back) their positions, the market was propelled higher

The soybean futures market at the CBOT has rallied $3.50 per bushel in the past four months. This strength may have come as a surprise to some market participants, given U.S. soybean ending stocks have increased in each of the past two years. However, astute chart readers were led to believe that something was up […] Read more


Drozd: Two-month reversal forewarns livestock producers to higher meal prices

The meal market was technically oversold which created the opportunity for a short covering rally

Sometimes it just does not pay to ignore what the charts are telling you. Case in point, soybean meal futures exploded higher after a two-month reversal materialized on the monthly nearby futures chart. This reversal pattern indicated a change in trend and is illustrated in the accompanying chart. Since its development on March 31, the […] Read more



Drozd: Anemic corn market showing signs of life

Price improvements are coming despite anticipated large ending stocks for 2015-16

Corn futures at the Chicago Board of Trade rallied to a nine-month high in April 2016. The 55-cent-per-bushel gain may have come as a surprise to some market participants, given USDA is forecasting global corn ending stocks to be record large in 2015-16. However, there were signs the market had stopped going down, at least […] Read more


Drozd: Loonie turns up following two-week reversal

From January to April the loonie has risen almost 10 cents against the greenback

The Canadian dollar has been having a short covering rally for the past few months, gaining nearly .1000 relative to the U.S. dollar. However, the major trend remains down as this market continues to put in lower highs and lower lows. The Canadian dollar was at par with the U.S. dollar in February 2013. For […] Read more



Drozd: Reversal patterns alert cattle producers to market downturn

Cattle markets took a sudden downturn in October 2014, catching many producers off guard

The live cattle market has been under pressure since the nearby futures market at the CME peaked at $171.975 per hundredweight in October 2014. In the 14 months that followed, prices on the weekly nearby live cattle futures chart plummeted $55/cwt to $116.975/cwt, before recovering $20 per hundredweight. Although the downturn was sudden, and may […] Read more


Drozd: When crude oil slipped below $27 per barrel

Producers who 18 months ago recognized the impending downturn in the crude oil market, were able to position themselves

The price of crude oil has dropped $80 per barrel in the past 18 months. In July 2014, a two-month reversal materialized in the accompanying long-term chart indicating the crude oil market was about to turn down from $106 per barrel. Once prices fell below an important line of support in the $96-per-barrel area (shown […] Read more