Spring is the toughest time to forecast, but this spring is being particularly tough. The atmosphere is in a very meridional flow right now. That means there are lots of troughs and ridges. So, instead of a persistent westerly flow across our region we are seeing warm southerly flows as ridges build, followed by cool northerly flows as the ridges collapse and are replaced by troughs of low pressure.
Prairie forecast: Temperature rollercoaster to continue
Forecast issued April 16, covering April 16 to 23, 2025
Crunching the winter weather data
Some clear patterns emerged from the numbers
When diving into the data of this winter’s weather, it was clear that this winter brought near average temperatures across the Prairies with near to below average precipitation.
Prairie forecast: Warm start, unsettled weekend across extreme south
Forecast issued April 9, covering April 9 to 16, 2025
When we have these battles between warm and cold air, there's always a good chance for a storm system or area of low pressure to develop. We've seen this happen a few times this spring and looking at the latest medium range weather models, the Prairies are likely in for a few more storms as the battle continues.
Weather warfare is mostly fiction
Humans can exert some modest control over weather, but a lot of theories have no basis in fact
Humans can exert some modest control over weather, but a lot of attention on weaponized weather, though things like cloud seeding, is mostly fantasy.
Prairie forecast: Two lows and a high
Forecast issued April 2, covering April 2 to 9, 2025
This forecast period looks to be be defined by two areas of low pressure, one spinning off the west coast and the other spinning over eastern Canada. Exactly how these two lows behave a move will have a big impact on temperatures across the central and eastern Prairies.
Shrinking sea ice
The last few years have seen some of the smallest sea ice coverage, plus a look into the continued spring melt on the Prairies
The last few years have seen some of the smallest sea ice coverage, plus a look into the continued spring melt on the Prairies.
Prairie forecast: Spring storm could bring significant snow
Forecast issued March 26, covering March 26 to April 2, 2025
We start this forecast period with a strong area of low pressure pushing in off the southern coast of B.C. This low will bring very mild temperatures to southern Alberta on Wednesday and into Thursday. It will then help to develop an area of low pressure over south-central regions early Thursday morning.
Spring weather on the Prairies is a messy thing
Manitoba’s spring, along with the other Prairie provinces, has a lot of chaos built in as seasons change and summer tries to assert itself
Manitoba’s spring, along with the other Prairie provinces, has a lot of chaos built in as seasons change and summer tries to assert itself
Prairie forecast: Spring battle between warm and cold continues
Forecast issued March 19, covering March 19 to 26, 2025
For this forecast period the weather models are showing a fairly quiet weather pattern will only a couple of chances of light snow as weak systems track along the boundary between the cold Arctic air to our north and milder air to the south. This is the big question mark for this forecast period: just where will this boundary be?
Will the climate run AMOC?
The flow of ocean currents affects climate around the globe
AMOC is a crucial component of Earth’s climate system, acting as a gigantic oceanic conveyor belt that redistributes heat from the tropics poleward and as a result, influences weather patterns globally. The potential of its collapse poses significant risks to our planet.