AAFC projects tighter canola stocks for 2026-27

Glacier FarmMedia — Canadian canola carryout supplies at the end of the 2026-27 marketing year will be tighter than earlier projections, according to updated supply and demand estimates from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.

“Market uncertainty in both Canadian and global grain markets remains elevated, primarily due to persistent geopolitical factors that continue to disrupt trade flows and market stability,” said AAFC in their April 17 outlook, adding that the projections were based on average growing conditions and trend yields.

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Canola

• Projected canola ending stocks for 2026-27 were lowered to 1.064 million tonnes from 1.460 million the previous month. The 2025-26 canola carryout forecast held relatively steady at 2.765 million tonnes.
• Canola exports in 2026-27 were up by 100,000 tonnes from the March estimate, at 7.800 million tonnes, while exports for the current marketing year held at 8.200 million tonnes.
• Domestic usage for 2026-27 was raised by 300,000 tonnes from March, at 13.201 million tonnes, which compares with 12.551 million tonnes forecast for 2025-26.

Wheat

New crop wheat ending stocks held at 5.750 million tonnes, while the 2025-26 wheat carryout tightened slightly at 7.250 million tonnes.

Barley

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• Increased barley exports and a resulting drop in stocks was a noteworthy adjustment.
• AAFC raised its call for barley exports in 2025-26 to 3.700 million tonnes, from 3.330 million in March. Old crop barley carryout was lowered to 1.300 million tonnes, from 1.600 million tonnes in March, and new crop ending stocks were estimated at only 700,000 tonnes, from 900,000 tonnes the previous month.

Soybeans/Corn

• Corn ending stocks for 2026-27 were left at 2.00 million tonnes, while the old crop carryout was revised down by 300,000 tonnes to 1.700 million.
• Soybean carryout for 2026-27 was cut by 52,000 tonnes from March, at 641,000 tonnes, which compares with 391,000 for the current marketing year.

April estimates for Canadian major crops supply and demand: in million tonnes. Source: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.

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