Glacier FarmMedia — Canola is poised for more gains as the trade awaits the Trump administration’s decision on the latest biodiesel mandate, said Jamie Wilton, broker with RJ O’Brien in Winnipeg.
Wilton said the U.S. Environmental Protections Agency sent its recommendations and a decision on them has yet to come from the White House. He said it’s unclear at the moment how Canadian canola could play into that biodiesel mandate. If it’s included, then it’s a matter of volume and how much its tax credit will be.
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“It’s a pile of demand that’s coming down the line,” Wilton said, noting that Chicago soyoil has already been on the rise for some time.
Still an upside
Even if the Trump administration excluded Canadian canola, Wilton stressed there will still be an upside for it.
“Burning beanoil in the fuel tank, canola is going to pick up demand on the food side,” he said.
Wilton said the impact from the White House on U.S. soybeans could mirror that of corn when ethanol production was increased.
“You’re ramping up biodiesel production, so you will need the feedstocks to do that,” he said.
StatCan planting projections
As for the Statistics Canada forecast on planted area in 2026/27, Wilton suggested the report likely won’t have much of an impact on the canola market the day it’s released.
The trade widely expects planted canola acres to increase from 21.62 million seeded in 2025/26. Some in the market pegged the number at 22.50 million acres, cautioning yields are likely to drop to normal levels in 2026/27.
“We’ll need every stitch of canola we can produce,” Wilton said.
Looking for stronger exports
He added, the Canadian Grain Commission should be soon showing increases in canola exports in its weekly reports. The destinations will be confirmed in the CGC’s monthly reports, with the trade looking for a major increase of canola to China.
In the meantime, with the latest Middle East war, Wilton said it’s difficult to see where the commodities will go “from minute to minute and hour by hour.”
