Every few years I like to revisit the topic of perfect Christmas holiday weather.
Each year that I have looked at this, December has started out warm and dry with little snow cover across large parts of the southern Prairies. And what do we see this year? A warm start to December with below average snowfall.
As Christmas holidays approach, the big question is whether we’ll have perfect Christmas weather – but what is that?
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My perfect Christmas weather is to have a nice big snowstorm that keeps everyone at home. I know that a big storm at this time of the year would cause all sorts of problems and hardships, but deep down inside, I like the idea of being stuck at home for a few days, with no pressure to go anywhere because you can’t, plenty of food available, family around you, and hopefully something new to play with. That just sounds perfect to me!
We would be forced to sit back and just relax and get away from all the holiday bustle. But I am sure there are others who would prefer no snow and record warmth, or daytime highs around zero with great big lazy snowflakes falling, or maybe even clear skies and frigid cold.
All I know is, it takes all kinds to make the world go round and what is perfect for one person is not perfect for another.
According to Environment Canada, perfect Christmas weather means there is already snow on the ground and at some point during Christmas day there is measurable snowfall.
What are the chances of this happening somewhere across the Prairies? Table 1 shows the probability of having snow on the ground for Christmas and snowfall during the day. Data is broken into two periods to show how our winters seem to be getting warmer with less snow.
It seems that if you want a white Christmas, Winnipeg is your best bet. If you want Environment Canada’s version of a perfect Christmas, Regina is your best bet.
If we look at current snow cover across these locations, it is going to be a close call as to whether this will be a white or brown Christmas. In Manitoba, both Winnipeg and Brandon are reporting three centimetres of snow on the ground. While some above freezing temperatures are expected between now and Christmas, I don’t think these locations will lose their snow cover.
In Saskatchewan, both Regina and Saskatoon report only one cm of snow on the ground. With a few days above freezing, it is going to be close call between a brown or a white Christmas.
In Alberta, Calgary is currently the snowiest location with six cm on the ground, but there is a good chance that could all melt away before Christmas. In Edmonton, there is only one cm of snow on the ground, so it is too close to call.
If your version of a perfect Christmas is record-breaking warm or cold temperatures, the second table shows the warmest, coldest, and snowiest Christmas periods on record for two major centres in each Prairie province. These records go back to the late 1800s.
While some might argue that these old records are not valid, I think they are and they should be included.
If you are looking for a place to go on the Prairies to experience a really warm Christmas, Calgary would be the place for you. While all other centres have seen some nice warm Christmases in the past, not one of them comes close to Calgary’s recorded highs.
If you want some really cold weather during this period, you can pick pretty much any place. They have all seen Christmases colder than -35 C, although Winnipeg comes out the winner, with a bone chilling -47.8 C on Christmas Eve in 1879.
When you examine precipitation records for these three days, you’ll notice that the Christmas period has been relatively dry and storm-free, but there are a couple exceptions. Winnipeg did see a heavy dump of 30.5 cm of snow on Boxing Day in 1916, but the record for biggest Christmas snowstorms goes to Edmonton.
Back in 1938, Edmonton recorded over 25 cm of snow on Christmas Eve and a further 18 cm on Christmas day, for a total of 43 cm! It seems like 1938 was a snowy Christmas right across the Prairies.
Whatever weather you get, I hope it is what you want. If not, remember the season and try to make the best of it.
