I warned you that last week’s forecast held a lot of uncertainty, and while we didn’t see any wild swings in the weather from what the weather models were forecasting, the forecast seemed to change almost daily, and my forecast was pretty much totally invalid within a couple of days of writing it — frustrating!
For this forecast period the weather models are still struggling a little bit but are not showing the huge swings in the forecast like they did last week. The forecast looks to begin with our part of North America stuck between two storm tracks. The first track has weaker systems that trail across the northern Prairies, with the second track taking storms from the U.S. southwest and tracking them northeastward. This split of energy between the two tracks is resulting in weaker storm systems overall.
To begin this forecast period, the weather models show a weak area of low pressure dropping southeastward out of the northerly storm track. This may bring a light dusting of snow on Wednesday or Thursday. Seasonable high pressure will build in behind this low bringing plenty of sunshine along with daytime highs in the -10 C range with overnight lows falling to around -17 C. Over the weekend, the weather models show areas of low pressure passing by on both of the storm tracks. The southern system looks to remain well to our south, while the northern system looks to be weak. It looks like it might get a little windy as these two lows track by, but with daytime highs around -8 C and overnight lows around -15 C, windchills should not be that bad.
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Looking further ahead, the weather models are not showing any big snowstorms impacting our region and temperatures look to continue to be near to slightly above average.
Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, -15 to -1 C; lows, -25 to -9 C.
