The weather models were nearly bang-on with last week’s forecast. The only missteps were a little more snow than anticipated as the Alberta clipper moved through our region last Thursday and Friday, and the slightly colder air that moved in behind that system.
This was not unexpected, as a stronger push of cold arctic air helped deepen the Alberta clipper, which resulted in additional snow.
For this forecast period, it looks like arctic high pressure will dominate our weather, which means plenty of sunshine during the day and clear skies at night, along with cold temperatures. Expect daytime highs for nearly this whole forecast period to be running near the lower end of the usual temperature range for this time of the year.
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The wind will determine just how cold this cold snap feels, and at this point things are not looking too bad in that department.
It looks like we will start with a large area of arctic high pressure settling over Manitoba. This will bring the coldest temperatures of the year, with daytime highs in the -22 to -24 C range and overnight lows falling to around -32 C and possibly several degrees colder over the usual cold spots.
By the weekend, weather models show a weak Alberta clipper cutting through northern regions, keeping any light snow well to our north. Temperatures should moderate a bit as our winds become southerly, pushing daytime highs to around -15 C with overnight lows in the -23 C range.
This warmup will be short-lived, as a second arctic high drops southeastward behind this low. We will likely see brisk northerly winds as the low departs and the high builds in, but they should not last too long.
The centre of the high is forecast to move across southern Manitoba on Sunday or Monday, once again dropping temperatures to the low end of the usual range for this time of the year.
Fortunately, this high looks like it will zip through quickly and allow for another Alberta clipper to move eastward Tuesday or Wednesday.
This low looks like it will take a more southerly route through the northern U.S., which means only a slight chance of light snow for our region. Temperatures will once again warm up by a few degrees, but just like the first clipper, arctic high pressure looks poised to drop southeastward once the low has moved off. This will bring a return of well-below-average temperatures for the second half of the week.
Usual temperature range for this period: highs, -21 to -5 C; lows, -32 to -15 C.
