The first part of last week’s forecast played out fairly close to what the weather models were predicting. Another Colorado low developed as forecasted and moved nearly due north from May 12 to 13, bringing with it more rain along with some thundershowers and thunderstorms. The second part of the forecast did not play out quite as expected, due to the strength of the first low impacting the overall flow of the atmosphere and how systems ended up developing and moving.
This forecast period will begin with an area of low pressure tracking eastward along the international border. This low will bring clouds along with some showers on Thursday before weakening and drifting off to the northeast. Temperatures with the clouds and showers will stay on the cool side, with daytime highs only around 15 C. For the start of the long weekend — you guessed it — the weather models show another Colorado low developing and moving northward. On the positive side, it looks like this low will move fairly quickly. On the negative side, the low will bring a good chance of rain and thunderstorms on Saturday before moving into northern Manitoba by Sunday. While skies should be clear on Sunday and Monday of the long weekend, a cold northerly flow behind the low will keep temperatures near the bottom end of the usual range for this time of the year.
Looking to the week of May 23, it looks like temperatures will warm back up to more seasonal values, with daytime highs making it into the low 20s by late in the week. Unfortunately, it looks like the active pattern will continue with a couple of chances for showers during the week.
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Usual temperature range for this period: highs, 13 to 26 C; lows, 2 to 11 C.
