If you had to pick a time of the year that is the toughest to forecast, it would be spring. As warm air starts to build to our south and cold air continues to persist to our north, the battle between the two can make for some very tough forecasting. We saw this with the last forecast as an active weather pattern with several strong storm systems developed, playing havoc with our weather.
The question for this forecast period is if we will continue to miss or dodge these spring storms. The weather models keep showing these systems developing to our southwest and then ejecting northeastward. So far, they have stayed to our south and east. For the start of this forecast period, it looks like another of these strong storm systems will be tracking by well to our south and east. While this system won’t bring any significant precipitation to our region, the northerly flow on the back side of the low will keep temperatures on the cool side. Expect daytime highs between 0 C and +3 C with overnight lows falling to around -8 C.
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By the weekend the models show another storm system winding up over Montana then ejecting northeastward into north-central Manitoba by Sunday. Confidence in this system is low, but should it pan out as forecasted, southern regions will likely see some showers on Sunday or Monday as the warm front pushes north ahead of the low. Temperatures should be mild with daytime highs in the +5 to +8 C range with overnight lows staying above 0 C.
The cold front associated with this low will push through early in the week of April 10 dropping temperatures back down a little bit, with daytime highs forecast to be in the +2 to +4 C range. Things could then get interesting as the weather models show yet another strong area of low pressure developing over the central U.S., which could bring significant precipitation to our region by mid-week. But remember, things can change rapidly and dramatically at this time of the year.
Usual temperature range for this period: highs, 0 to +12 C; lows, -11 to 0 C.
