Well, last week’s forecast began on a bit of a sour note. The weather models showed that the storm system which impacted far-southern and eastern regions of Manitoba on April 6 and 7 should have stayed well to our south. To give the models credit, it did stay well to our south, but the strength and size of the system allowed for precipitation to wrap much farther north than anticipated. After that the weather models seemed to do a half-decent job.
For the start of this forecast period, we are once again having to deal with a fairly strong storm system sliding by to our south and east. As I am writing this forecast before this system will possibly impact us, I can only say that it looks like this storm system should mostly stay to our south. While precipitation from this system looks like it will miss us, the northerly flow around this low will help to keep temperatures on the cool side. Expect daytime highs to only be in the +3 to +5 C range right through to Friday, with overnight lows falling to around -5 C.
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Over the weekend things could once again become interesting. The weather models show another strong area of low pressure developing to our southwest. This low has the potential to become a big one. Currently, the weather models predict that a large part of this low will lift northeastward into the Dakotas on Saturday and then into northwestern Ontario on Sunday. This has the potential to bring rain to extreme southern and eastern areas and snow over western and more northerly areas. Amounts could be significant, with the potential of 10 to 20 mm of rain or around 10 cm of snow for those areas that see snow. Understandably, temperatures will remain on the cool side.
Confidence in the path of the above-mentioned storm system is low, but should it pan out as forecasted, the weather models then show the main storm system lifting northeastward behind the weekend low. This system will have cooler air to work with, which means if it does impact our region, it would be mostly snow, with significant amounts possible on Monday and Tuesday, especially over eastern and central regions. So far we have dodged the big storms; the big question for this forecast period is, will we keep getting lucky?
Usual temperature range for this period: highs, +2 to +14 C; lows, -9 to +2 C.
