The weather models again did a good job with the last forecast period. Some regions saw a light frost as forecasted last Thursday morning, and the warmer air arrived by the weekend, making for nice fall weather. Let us hope this trend in forecast accuracy continues into this period.
The models have been consistent with overall mild fall weather in our region. This forecast period starts with a ridge of high pressure building to our west and sliding eastward as the week progresses. This should mean sunny skies and warm temperatures.
Expect daytime highs to climb from the upper teens on Wednesday to the low and possibly even mid-20s by Friday or Saturday. Winds will predominantly be out of the south, but they don’t look to be strong.
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Over the weekend, the models show the ridge of high pressure collapsing as an area of low pressure tracks across north-central Manitoba. This low may produce the odd shower as the cold front gets dragged through the forecast area sometime on Sunday.
The best chances of rain should remain well to our north with this system. Temperatures on Sunday will be much cooler, with daytime highs in the mid-teens.
For the first full week of October, the models show a cool northwesterly flow developing across our region as a ridge of high pressure begins building to our west and a large area of low pressure stalls out over northern Quebec. While it looks to be cool, temperatures should be about average for this time of the year, with daytime highs in the low teens and overnight lows in the 1 to 4 C range.
Looking further ahead, the model shows the western ridge of high pressure moving eastward late in the week and into the Thanksgiving long weekend, which could mean some nice warm weather. Keep your fingers crossed!
Usual temperature range for this period: highs, 10 to 21 C; lows, -1 to +8 C.
