Last week’s forecast played out fairly close to what the weather models predicted. We saw unsettled weather early in the period, with a return to sunshine over the long weekend. It did miss the odd shower over the weekend but was spot on with the temperatures. The weather models then called for an area of low pressure to move in during the first full week of September, bringing milder temperatures and a good chance for more showers. That low did form — it just moved a little farther west and north of us.
This forecast period begins with that low drifting by to our north. Wednesday looks to be the warmest day as southerly winds ahead of the low pull warm air into our region. Expect daytime highs to be in the mid-20s with overnight lows only dropping into the upper teens. Depending on the exact timing of the low, we may see another warm day on Thursday before the cold front pushes through.
A second area of low pressure is forecast to develop to our southwest on Friday and then push northeastward over the weekend. It looks like the best chance for rainfall will be on Saturday — but don’t be surprised if the low holds off until Sunday. Temperatures will be cooler with plenty of clouds and showers.
A third low is forecast to spin up to our southwest again on Monday (Sept. 13), then push into our region by Tuesday or Wednesday. Confidence with this part of the forecast this far out is not very high, but should this low develop, it will bring widespread showers across all southern and central Manitoba along with cooler temperatures. In fact, looking even further ahead, the models show a strong push of cold air behind this low which may bring the first frost of the fall to some areas by late in the week.
Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, 15 to 25 C; lows, 4 to 12 C.