Well, last forecast wasn’t too bad; we saw a couple of storm systems move through and the cold air did arrive over the weekend as predicted. I started to get a little worried that I may have lost my touch.
For this forecast period it looks like our general weather pattern is fighting between staying in the cold winter pattern or shifting to a new milder spring-like pattern. It looks like we will begin with the winter pattern, as an area of high pressure is forecast to drop southward starting on Wednesday, Feb. 16. This will push out the milder air that moved in early in the week, with daytime highs falling back into the -20 to -24 C range and overnight lows falling to around -30 C. This cold air looks to hang around until at least Friday or Saturday.
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Around Saturday the weather models show a weak disturbance tracking by to our south. This system will allow temperatures to moderate slightly, but it is looking like another shot of arctic air will move in by Sunday, returning us back to well-below-average temperatures. This cold air looks like it will zip through pretty quickly as an area of low pressure is forecast to develop over Alberta and track through the northern Prairies on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Confidence in this low is fairly low, but should it develop we will likely see temperatures begin to moderate beginning on the holiday Monday, with daytime highs warming to around -10 C by Wednesday. Currently, it looks like most of the snow will stay to the north with this system, so we will have only a small chance of snow on Wednesday.
Looking further ahead the weather models show the flow becoming more zonal across Western Canada, which should lead to milder temperatures.
Usual temperature range for this period: highs, -17 to -3 C; lows, -30 to -11 C.
