It always amazes me how a small change in a single weather system can have big implications on the weather.
This happened with the Colorado low in our last forecast. The low formed as expected, but took a much slower and southeasterly route than predicted. It was all part of a stagnant air flow that has kept our region within an area of high pressure. This resulted in mild temperatures, light winds and plenty of low clouds and fog – pretty nice weather to start the new year.
It looks like this forecast period will see a continuation of this weather as the two main winter storm tracks stay well to our south and north. We will continue to see a weak, stagnant flow. This forecast period begins with an area of high pressure sliding off to the east. The southwesterly flow riding up the backside of this high could produce some flurries on Wednesday before weak high pressure builds back in on Thursday and Friday.
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It’s hard to say how much sun we will see under this high because conditions will once again be conducive to the development of low clouds and fog. Temperatures look to remain mild, with highs in the -10 C range and overnight lows falling to around -20 C.
Over the weekend the weather models show the weak high replaced by a broad area of weak low pressure. This will increase cloud cover across our region and will bring the chance for flurries. I cannot nail down the placement or timing for light snows, but the chance for light snow exists through to the end of this forecast period.
Winds look to be light, with continuing mild temperatures. Forecasted daytime highs are in the -6 to -10 C range with overnight lows around -15 C. It’s darned nice weather for the middle of winter.
Looking further ahead, there are indications of colder weather moving in around Jan. 19, but if it does, it might be short-lived because the models show mild air returning by the weekend of Jan. 21. That is a long way off and much can change between now and then, but with the stagnant pattern across our region, confidence in the medium-range forecast is a little higher than usual.
Usual temperature range for this period: highs, -23 to -5 C; lows, -33 to -15 C.
