Last week’s forecast hit the nail on the head with the arrival of warm spring temperatures. Daytime highs were forecast to push the 20 C mark by Friday of the first weekend in May and the weather did it by Thursday in many locations. What the models did not get right, unfortunately, was the return of more unsettled conditions during the last half of the forecast.
For this forecast period it looks like we are going to spend most of it trying to dodge thundershowers or the odd thunderstorm. The active Colorado low pattern that brought record precipitation to parts of southern and central Manitoba in April looks as though it wants to try to re-establish itself — but this time behaving more like a late-spring pattern, rather than the late-winter type of pattern we saw in April.
The first Colorado-style low is forecast to develop and move straight northward into Saskatchewan late on Wednesday or Thursday, May 12. This will place us on the warm side of the low which will result in daytime highs remaining near the 20 C mark and overnight lows falling to around 10 C. It will also mean plenty of instability and the chance of showers, thundershowers, and the odd thunderstorm.
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A second low is forecasted to develop over the weekend. This low will try to push a warm front northward, which may result in strong thunderstorms, though currently the weather models are keeping these just to our south. The low then looks as if it will weaken and drift off to the east, staying well to our south. Temperatures should remain mild, with daytime highs warming into the mid-20s by Wednesday, May 17, as high pressure builds into our region, bringing sunny skies and light winds.
Looking further ahead, this mild but slightly unstable pattern looks to continue as we work our way toward June.
Usual temperature range for this period: highs, 12 to 25 C; lows, 1 to 10 C.
