Once again, the forecast in my last article all went to you-know-what. The cold pattern won out over the more spring-like pattern and as a result it seemed like every little storm system ended up tracking right through southern and central Manitoba, bringing more snow and strong winds. Fortunately, for this forecast period it looks like the weather pattern is going to become quieter — which means more predictable. Unfortunately, it means arctic high pressure and below-average temperatures look to dominate.
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This forecast period will begin with a strong area of arctic high pressure basically centred over our region, bringing clear skies and cold temperatures. Expect daytime highs to be in the -22 C range with overnight lows falling to around -33 C. There is a chance we could see a quick shot of snow on Friday as a weak area of low pressure drops almost due south. Confidence in this system is low, but it would be interesting if it does transpire, as I don’t remember seeing a low take this type of track before.
Over the weekend and into the beginning of March, the weather models show two more shots of cold arctic air working southward. The first high will take a traditional path, dropping southeastward out of the Yukon, through Saskatchewan, then southeast through the northern states. The second high, should it occur, is forecast to take a more unusual path, much like the earlier low, dropping due south out of Nunavut before tracking eastward into Ontario. Both lows will bring mainly clear skies and cold temperatures, with both daytime highs and lows continuing to run at or even below the usual temperature range for this time of the year.
Looking further ahead, the models keep hinting at warmer temperatures moving in, but with each new model run, those warmer temperatures are a little further away. My worry now is that we will see a quick flip to warm temperatures and a rapid snowmelt — something a lot of areas do not want to see.
Usual temperature range for this period: highs, -16 to -2 C; lows, -29 to -10 C.
