The first part of my last forecast was not too bad, but things fell apart a little bit during the second half. This is fairly typical not only for this time of the year, but also when we have a fairly active storm pattern.
For this forecast period, it looks like the active pattern we have seen over the last couple of weeks will calm down. Plenty of energy or storm systems are still forecast to move in off the Pacific during this period, but most of the energy from these storms is expected to either slide by to our north or south. This means not a lot of snow is expected and we should see average temperatures overall.
After a mild start to the week, thanks to an area of low pressure moving from Alberta into Minnesota, the weather models show cooler high pressure working in from the north. The Minnesota low could wrap a little light snow northward into southern regions of Manitoba late on Wednesday and into Thursday, as a trough of low pressure extending northwestward from this low attempts to push into our region. As this low moves off to the northeast by Friday, weak high pressure is expected to dominate our region right through the weekend.
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This region of weak high pressure should bring sunny to maybe partly cloudy skies along with seasonable temperatures. Expect daytime highs to be in the -7 to -5 C range with overnight lows falling to around -15 C. Winds look to be fairly light, making for some nice outdoor weather over the weekend. To kick off the last week of November, the weather models show a weak area of low pressure moving through our region on Tuesday or Wednesday, bringing with it a chance for a little light snow. Being so far out, and only a weak system, confidence in this part of the fore- cast is very low.
Usual temperature range for this period: highs, -12 to +1 C; lows, -21 to -7 C.
