I’m not sure if this will be a good-news or bad-news forecast. With many regions having wet fields, a number of farmers to whom I’ve spoken want cold weather to move in so the ground can freeze up. If you’re in that boat, then this will not be a great forecast.
As usual, confidence in this forecast is not that high, due to it being fall, but this time it is more on the day-to-day details of the forecast. Overall, the weather models have been pretty consistent with the weather pattern, and that pattern calls for plenty of warm weather. In fact, the latest model runs show temperatures running 6 to 10 C above average right out to the middle of November.
Read Also
Thunderstorms and straight-line winds
Straight-line winds in thunderstorms can cause as much damage as a tornado and are next on our weather school list exploring how and why severe summer weather forms.
For this forecast period, a large area of high pressure is forecast to develop over the west-central U.S., extending northward into the southern Prairies. This should bring our region an extended period of dry and warm weather. Expect daytime highs to be near 10 C on most days, with some low to even mid-teens possible with enough sunshine. Fog could be an issue on some nights, but it doesn’t look like it will stick around during the day.
By the weekend, an area of low pressure is forecast to develop over central Alberta and track across the northern Prairies. This will bring us southerly winds over the weekend, with continued warm temperatures. We might see a few clouds and maybe a light shower or two early next week as a weak cold front slides through behind the low. Temperatures will cool down a little bit next Tuesday and Wednesday, but it doesn’t look like we’ll see any strong pushes of cold air. This is due to a persistent area of high pressure to our south and east, along with a large area of low pressure sitting in the Gulf of Alaska.
Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, -2 to +10 C; lows, -11 to +1 C. Probability of precipitation falling as snow: 60 per cent
