March across the Prairies was almost, but not quite, a weather reversal of February.
Last year, June had average temperatures equivalent to July’s, and July had average temperatures more like June. We didn’t quite see that in March, but in some locations, March was a little colder than February. The strange weather continues. March was colder than average by a few degrees in most locations, but not bone chilling. It seemed cold because February was so warm.
In Alberta, southern regions had some of the worst weather across the Prairies. Sorry Calgary region. We do feel sorry for you when this happens in spring. Looking at mean monthly temperatures, Calgary was the warm spot at-4.2 C, but that was about 2.5 C below the long-term average.
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The Edmonton region was the cold spot, with a mean monthly temperature of -5.6 C, about 1.2 C colder than average. Peace River was slightly warmer, with a mean monthly temperature of -5.4 C ,which was 0.2 C warmer than average.
I use the international airport temperature for Edmonton and not the Blatchford site, which is what you see on Environment Canada’s website. If I used the Blatchford site, the mean monthly temperature for March was -4.2 C. I have had several people write to me, noting this site gives much warmer readings than the airport site.
Precipitation across Alberta in March ranged from very dry over northern and central regions to wet across parts of the south. This issue’s map shows the distribution of precipitation in March across the Prairies as a percent of average, but let’s look at the totals for our three main reporting stations.
Peace River was driest, with only 2.1 mm of water equivalent precipitation reported. Edmonton was almost as dry, with 6.1 mm. In the Calgary region, several storms brought significant amounts of precipitation, with the total at the end of the month at 57.1 mm, which is about 39 mm above average.
In Saskatchewan, Saskatoon recorded both the coldest mean temperature among the main reporting centres across the Prairies, and the coldest compared to average . Saskatoon’s mean monthly temperature was -9.1 C, which was 3.8 C below the long-term average.
It was a little warmer in Regina, which reported a mean monthly temperature of -7.3 C, or 2.5 C below average. Precipitation across both centres was a little below average. Saskatoon reported about 11 mm of water equivalent precipitation and Regina reported about 15 mm. Both values were about five mm below average for the month.
The Winnipeg region was the warm spot, literally and relatively, with a mean monthly temperature of -6.1 C. That is only 0.3 C below average. Brandon was a distant second with -8.5 C, which was 2.3 C colder than average. The cold spot was Dauphin, with -8.9 C, or 2.8 C colder than average.
Winnipeg recorded 9.4 mm of water equivalent precipitation and Dauphin reported even less at 4.7, both well below the average of 22 mm. Brandon had a monthly total of 21.2 mm, just shy of average.
Overall, it was a colder than average March and most regions had below average precipitation. As for forecast accuracy, the winners are CanSIPS and my forecast.
CanSIPS predicted “slightly above average temperatures across eastern regions in March with central and western regions seeing near to below average temperatures. Precipitation forecast is calling for above average amount over eastern regions in March with near average amounts over central and western regions.”
My forecast was this: “Eastern regions will see above average precipitation in March with western regions seeing near average amounts. Temperatures will be near to below average in March right across the Prairies.”
Now to the long-range forecasts. The Old Farmer’s Almanac calls for well below average temperatures in April and well above average precipitation. May is expected to see slightly below average temperatures and precipitation. June will see near to slightly above average temperatures and near to slightly below average rainfall.
The Canadian Farmer’s Almanac also calls for a cold and wet April follow by similar conditions in May. Its June outlook is for near average conditions.
NOAA calls for warmer than average temperatures over the eastern prairies and near average temperatures elsewhere in April to June. It predicts near average precipitation. The CFS model calls for above average temperatures, a trend most pronounced over northern regions. It predicts near to above average precipitation over the next three months.
The CanSIPS model forecasts above average temperature in April across all regions except southern Alberta. May and June are expected to see above average temperatures. Its precipitation forecast is spotty; essentially near average.
The ECMWF or European model calls for above average temperatures with near average precipitation, and Manitoba with a chance of above average amounts.
I think we will see near to above average temperatures over the next three months, and I lean toward the ECMWF model, which predicts near average precipitation and potentially above average amounts in the eastern Prairies.
