If you remember back to May, one of the comments about what June’s weather might be like was the possibility of instant summer. That is exactly what happened across the Prairies in June. Right from the beginning of the month, it felt like we just left spring and jumped right into the middle of summer.
Looking back at temperatures for June, nearly all the stations recorded mean monthly temperatures that were well above the long-term average for the month. In fact, June’s mean monthly temperatures were near or above the averages for July. So it truly was like jumping straight into the middle of summer. I know that for me, having always worked at a non-air-conditioned school, this was one of the hottest months in my 20-plus years of teaching.
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Just how hot was it? Let’s start off in the coolest province, both in relative and absolute terms: Alberta. Both the Calgary and Peace regions came in with mean monthly temperatures right around 16 C. For Calgary, that was about 2 C warmer than average, while at Peace River it was about 1.5 C warmer. Edmonton was the hot spot with a mean monthly temperature of 18 C, a little over 3 C warmer than average. Precipitation varied, with both the Calgary and Peace regions seeing below-average amounts and the Edmonton region coming in above average.
Next-warmest region was Saskatchewan. Both Regina and Saskatoon reported mean monthly temperatures in June that were between 19 and 20 C. This was a good 3 to 3.5 C above the long-term average for the month and between 0.5 and 1 C warmer than July’s average. Precipitation was near average in Regina and below average in Saskatoon.
The warm spot in June was Manitoba. Mean monthly temperatures ranged from nearly 20 C in both Brandon and Dauphin to a balmy 21 C in Winnipeg. These temperatures were about 4 C warmer than average and if we compared them to July’s average, they would still be a couple of degrees above average. Precipitation during June ranged from near to slightly below average in Winnipeg and Dauphin to above average in the Brandon region. With the spotty nature of rainfall from thunderstorms, it can be hard to give general statements about precipitation, as one area can have an excess of rain, while a few kilometres away didn’t get any. For example, my place missed out on almost all the storms in June, with only one hitting late in the month. So, while Winnipeg, my closest station, had near-average rainfall, my place was well below average.
Who called it?
How did the weather models do with June’s forecast? Looking back, I would have to give the win to the Canadian CanSIPS model, which called for well-above-average temperatures with near-average precipitation. None of the forecasts were able to correctly point out the spotty nature of June’s precipitation so, with some stations reporting near- and above-average amounts, and others below average, I had to give the nod to the forecast that called for average amounts.
Moving on to the latest long-range forecasts. As usual, we will start off with the almanacs. The Old Farmer’s Almanac calls for near-average temperatures and precipitation in July followed by a warm and wet August. The good folks over at the Canadian Farmers’ Almanac appear to call for a hot and dry July, as it mentions hot and dry weather several times in its discussion. August looks like it will cool to more average temperatures as it mentions pleasant weather a few times. It also looks like the month will get progressively wetter as it talks about showers and unsettled weather numerous times during the last couple of weeks of August.
Looking at the computer models, starting with NOAA: for those of you new to my monthly weather roundups, NOAA’s long-range forecast maps purposely cut out Canada, not displaying any information — which, in my opinion, probably takes more work, as we know the model they use creates a forecast for the whole continent. Anyway, for this forecast I extrapolate the data as best I can northward into Canada. That means this forecast is most accurate for the southern half of the Prairies. According to NOAA, it looks like most of the Prairies will see near-average temperatures over the next two months, with Alberta seeing the best chance of above-average temperatures. Its precipitation forecast calls for near-average amounts.
The usually reliable CFS model calls for near- to slightly below-average temperatures in July with the coolest temperatures, compared to average, expected in southern Saskatchewan. Temperatures look to rebound to above average in August. Precipitation, according to the model, will be above average in both July and August.
The final model is last month’s winner: the CanSIPS model. It calls for a continuation of our above-average temperatures along with near- to below-average precipitation.
Finally, my interpretation: I’m leaning toward the CanSIPS model, but I do see signs that July might not be as warm, compared to average, as June was. As I have pointed out in the past, precipitation is the hardest thing to forecast, especially in the summer as most of it comes from thundershowers and storms. With this in mind, I will go with near- to slightly above-average amounts, as it looks like this summer might be fairly active in the thunderstorm department.
In the next issue, we will continue our look at severe summer weather. Next up is tornadoes, which seems appropriate; not only have we seen a few across our region, but we are also heading into the region’s peak thunderstorm and tornado season. In the meantime, remember the signs of severe weather and take appropriate precautions if you think a severe storm is heading your way. Here are some signs that a severe thunderstorm is approaching or has moved into your area: a dark, continuous western horizon; continuous rumbling of thunder; a line of clouds moving toward you followed by a solid sheet of dark grey or black; and lastly, a greenish-looking sky. I didn’t talk about a green sky in the hail article, but in my experience, green skies during a thunderstorm are often associated with hail. Here’s hoping any storms we do get are not severe, and simply bring the right amount of moisture.
