FORECAST | Issued Nov. 25, 2021, covering the period from Dec. 1 to 8, 2021
I wouldn’t say last issue’s forecast was spot on, as it didn’t do very well on the details. What was accurate was the switch from an active relatively stormy pattern to a much quieter pattern. This forecast period faces a lot of uncertainty as the weather models have been bouncing back and forth between warm, dry weather and turning colder with the chance of a storm or two.
After a mild weekend and start to the week, it looks as though our weather will remain quiet and mild. The overall pattern has us in a zonal or westerly flow right through until at least Friday. This will bring us sunny to partly cloudy skies with daytime highs hovering within a few degrees of the freezing mark and overnight lows falling to around -10 C, which is near the top end of the usual temperature range for this time of the year.
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Over the weekend and into next week things look to get interesting, though there is not a lot of confidence in this part of the forecast as the weather models at the time of writing have not been consistently showing this pattern from run to run. For now, it looks like all that Pacific energy that has been coming ashore across B.C. will drop southeastward, digging a deep trough of low pressure across the western U.S. An area of low pressure is then forecast to develop and push northeastward late in the weekend and into the beginning of the first full week of December. There is a good chance of us seeing some measurable snow from this, but just how much is the question. Any storm systems coming at us from the southwest must be watched, as there is definitely the potential for a big storm.
Behind this system it looks more and more likely that we will see the first major outbreak of arctic air this winter. Daytime highs are forecasted by the weather models to drop into the -15 to -18 C range, with overnight lows falling into the -24 to -27 C range.
Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, -12 to +1 C; lows, -21 to -7 C.
