Forecast: Cooling down to more seasonal temperatures

Issued February 17, 2017 – Covering the period from February 22 to March 1, 2017

Reading Time: 2 minutes

Published: February 23, 2017

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Thought I would take a break from the precipitation maps this time around. This map shows the global temperatures for January as percentiles. Looking at the map you can see just how much red (above-average temperatures) there is compared to blue (below-average temperatures). Looking at our part of the world you can see that we were warmer to much warmer than average in January, which matches the numbers I have, with the Winnipeg region recording a mean monthly temperature that was about 3 C above average.

Due to the holiday Monday, my deadline for the weather forecast was much earlier than usual. Because of this, I will have to skip some of the details and stick with a more generalized forecast.

After a warm to record-warm end to the last forecast period, this forecast period is going to feel a little more like winter once again. That said, I don’t think we’ll see the return of any bone-chilling cold, rather, it looks simply like more seasonal temperatures will be moving back in. The weather models had been trending towards some very cold weather for early March, but the last few runs have been pulling back on the cold. The way this winter has been going I think I will put my confidence in the milder outlook.

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After an active start to the week, the weather models are showing the storm track shifting southwards a little bit as cool air pushes in from the north. We may see a quick system shoot through on Wednesday or Thursday, but after that, it does not look like our region should receive any significant precipitation. A large area of low pressure is forecasted to move by to our south over the weekend. This system may bring a little light snow to extreme southern and eastern regions, but right now amounts look to be minimal.

Next week, another large low is forecasted to track by to our south, but this time the weather models have it much farther south, with little to no chance of our region seeing any precipitation. This system will help open the door for some colder air to move in later next week, but luckily, it looks like we’ll only receive a glancing blow as the core of the cold air misses us to the east.

Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, -17 to -3 C; lows, -30 to -11 C.

About the author

Daniel Bezte

Daniel Bezte

Co-operator contributor

Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a BA (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology, from the U of W. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park.

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