So far this winter the warm weather has been easily winning out over the cold weather. We saw this in the last forecast. The forecast played out pretty much as expected; the only thing that you had to do was bump up the temperatures by 5 or so! At the end of last week’s forecast I called for a return to more-average winter conditions or colder weather, and that still looks like it will be the case.
The weather models are showing a push of arctic air moving in behind a system that may bring a little light snow to our area around the middle of the week. By Wednesday or Thursday we should feel the effect of the arctic air, with high temperatures only expected to be around the -10 C to -15 C mark, with overnight lows around -20 C to -25 C.
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Daniel Bezte looks back on October weather on the Prairies and looks ahead to see whether there’s any consensus for this winter’s weather.
We can expect these conditions to last right into the weekend before a weak area of low pressure moves across the Prairies, ahead of what looks to be another push of cold air. This low may bring some flurries to most regions late Sunday or Monday. Along with the flurries, temperatures will moderate a little bit, with highs likely making it to around -5 C.
Once this system moves by, the models show another region of arctic high pressure trying to drop southward. This high looks like it will have to contend with a building ridge of high pressure to our southwest (like we have seen all winter) and a large area of low pressure sitting off the East Coast. Whether this arctic high will be able to win out is yet to be seen.
The last fly in the ointment is the large low off the West Coast. There is a chance some of that energy will break off and push across our region during the second half of next week, bringing with it a good chance of measurable snow. Overall confidence in this forecast is very low, as these cold air outbreaks just haven’t happened as forecast so far this winter.
Usual temperature range for this period: Highs, -22 to -6 C; lows, -33 to -15 C.
