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Is inflation risk overhyped?
Markets, News

Is inflation risk overhyped?

A lot of people — perhaps too many — are talking about inflation

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A lot of people, perhaps even too many people, are talking about inflation. I say this because when there’s so much attention on a topic, you have to wonder if it’s being overhyped, or if maybe there’s something more to it. Various inflationary factors are starting to appear. Recent U.S. government reports show signs of
A bag of beans sits atop bulk soybeans at a Walmart in Beijing on Sept. 23, 2019.
Grain Markets, Markets

Oilseeds draw strength from China’s recent market action

Oil’s fading fortunes put pressure on canola, not to mention other crops

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Canola prices showed impressive resilience during the week ended April 24 after being battered by outside markets earlier in the week. On April 20, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures dropped into negative territory to close at minus US$37.63, as traders bailed out of the May contract before its expiry date. The June contract
Grain growers are up against an added layer of uncertainty as they get ready for spring seeding and, in some cases, to complete last fall’s harvest.
Grain Markets, Markets

Currency weakness supportive for Canadian-grown commodities

Wheat futures drew some strength from demand for shelf-stable goods

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It’s a fluid situation’ was the phrase of the week as the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic infected everything it touched. The grains and oilseeds were not immune to the large swings seen in the global financial markets, but did manage to hold up reasonably well, all things considered. Social isolation, quarantines, travel restrictions and general worldwide
CBOT May 2020 soybeans with 20-, 50- and 100-day moving averages. (Barchart)
Crops, Markets

U.S. grains: Corn, soy, wheat book multi-month lows

Financial markets continue to drag commodities lower

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Chicago | Reuters — U.S. grain and soybean futures sank to multi-month lows on Monday on worries about the coronavirus pandemic denting the global economy and chilling end-user demand for commodities, traders said. “The fear is still that it will only get worse as the week unfolds,” said Mark Schultz, chief analyst at Northstar Commodity
ICE Futures May 2020 canola with 20-day moving average and CBOT May 2020 soyoil (red line). (Barchart)
Crops, Markets

ICE weekly outlook: Volatility hampers canola

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MarketsFarm — Canola values have been at the mercy of volatile financial markets this week, trading in lockstep with headlines of plummeting crude oil values and stock indices. “We’re getting into a bit of a pattern in the markets,” Ken Ball of P.I. Financial in Winnipeg said, explaining that prices will show some strength, then
CBOT May 2020 corn with 20-, 50- and 100-day moving averages. (Barchart)
Crops, Markets

U.S. grains: Corn, soy, wheat slide with financial markets

Drop in oil prices adds pressure on corn

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Chicago | Reuters — U.S. grain and soybean futures fell on Friday as the spread of the new coronavirus triggered broad selling in commodities and equities. Wall Street tumbled as fears of economic damage intensified with the global tally of cases crossing 100,000. Financial markets view the virus, which causes a flu-like illness, as the
Derwin: Dollar direction signals hard to decipher
Crops, Currency markets, Markets

Derwin: Dollar direction signals hard to decipher

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Every week the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) releases its Commitments of Traders (COT) report. But just how committed are the traders shown in those trading activity reports? When you look at what traders can also do in the cash, over-the-counter and physical markets associated with those futures contracts, it’s difficult to say for sure. This
Corn has recently been under pressure from big crop pegs out of South America and chart-based selling, as well as general uncertainty in the markets over the future of U.S.-China trade.
Comment, Markets

Comment: Long positions on corn liquidated

Funds sold their entire CBOT corn long position undetected during U.S. govt. shutdown

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Within the span of six weeks, commodity funds dumped bullish bets in Chicago-traded corn futures and options without the market’s knowledge. Market participants were under the impression that speculators closed out January relatively optimistic toward the grains. However, data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) confirmed otherwise on Feb. 19. Hedge funds and
Editorial, Opinion

Editorial: Ultimate inside information

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One day in my previous life as director of information for the Canadian Wheat Board, a Chinese delegation was in Winnipeg to negotiate a wheat purchase. By that time, Chinese negotiations were down to a few days rather than the few weeks they had taken in the 1960s and 1970s, but there was still a
Cereals, Markets, Oilseeds

Funds all-time record short across CBOT grains, oilseeds

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Speculators hit a milestone in the Chicago grains and oilseeds market in late April, as they have reached a new level of bearishness across all seven grains and oilseeds futures and options contracts. Combining corn, hard and soft red winter wheat, hard red spring wheat, soybeans, soybean oil and soybean meal, hedge funds and other

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