Wheat is a staple crop around the world, and the crop is usually growing somewhere at any given time. Canada’s spring wheat is off the field and seeding is months away, but wheat harvest operations are ongoing in the Southern Hemisphere. Northern Hemisphere winter wheat should be going into dormancy.
Wheat futures recovered off nearby lows in early December. The ongoing Russia/Ukraine war remains a major factor in wheat markets, but adjustments to the world wheat balance sheet over the next few months will also be followed closely by traders.
Australia: The wheat harvest is well underway in Australia. The country’s agriculture department pegs production at 31.9 million tonnes. That is up by 60,000 tonnes from a September estimate and 23 per cent above the year-ago level.
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Canada will likely set a new record for spring wheat yields this year, topping the previous mark of 54.1 bushels an acre set in 2020.
However, there have been some quality issues, as heavy rains hit fields at just the wrong time. Just how much milling quality Australian wheat will be available for the export market is now in question as market participants try to get a handle on the scope of the downgrades.
Russia: Russian winter wheat faces even more questions on the projected size and quality of the crop as it heads through winter. The amount of winter wheat in poor shape or never sprouted is said to be unusually high, and several consultancies have lowered crop estimates.
Russia has lowered its export quotas for the first half of 2025 and raised export duties in an attempt to curb inflation and protect the domestic market.
Argentina: Yield reports out of Argentina are beating early expectations. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange placed production at 18.6 million tonnes. That compares with only 15.9 million tonnes last year.
Canada: Canada’s 2024/25 wheat crop was raised to just under 35 million tonnes in Statistics Canada’s latest estimates, which compares with 32.9 million tonnes in 2023/24. Quality is generally thought to be good and issues elsewhere may open some doors in the coming marketing year.
