Every month the United States Department of Agriculture releases its World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates report. Sometimes the report sparks large moves in the futures, but other times the reaction is muted.
Highlights of the June 12 report included downward revisions to Russian wheat production and Brazil’s soybean crop, and an increase in the U.S. wheat production estimate, but it was largely filed under the non-event category.
Wheat: USDA upped its average yield estimate for the 2024-25 U.S. wheat crop by half a bushel per acre, pegging total production at a five-year high of 1.875 billion bushels. Meanwhile, it cut its call for Russian wheat production by five million tonnes, to 83 million, and lowered Ukraine’s crop by 1.5 million, to 19.5 million. World wheat ending stocks for the 2023-24 marketing year were raised slightly from an earlier estimate, at 259.6 million tonnes, while 2024-25 wheat stocks should tighten to 252.3 million.
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Soybeans: After flooding hurt soybean crops in Brazil last month, many market participants had expected a larger cut to the country’s 2023-24 soybean production than the USDA reported, a reduction by only one million tonnes to 153 million. Brazil’s Conab remains much less optimistic, estimating soybean production at only 147.4 million tonnes. Meanwhile, the USDA left its call for Brazil’s 2024-25 soybean crop at 169 million tonnes.
Corn: The corn numbers saw only minor revisions on the month, with a steady call on the South American crop and no changes to the world or U.S. carryout projections.
Looking ahead: With supply/demand projections quickly fading in the rearview mirror, the next numbers that could provide direction will be the updated acreage estimates at the end of the month. Statistics Canada’s updated acreage estimates come out on June 27, followed by the USDA’s report on June 28.
