By Terryn Shiells and Dave Sims, Commodity News Service Canada
Winnipeg, July 10 – ICE Futures Canada canola contracts ended higher after a volatile trading session on Friday.
Some spillover support came from the advances seen in the Chicago soybean complex, according to analysts.
The downswing in the value of the Canadian dollar was also supportive, as it made canola more attractive to foreign buyers.
Ongoing worries about Canadian canola production problems this year, as parts of Alberta and Saskatchewan are still suffering from drought, continued to underpin the market.
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However, sentiment that the Canadian commodity was starting to look expensive relative to other oilseeds limited the advances, brokers said.
A lack of interest in pushing prices too high ahead of the weekend and the large global oilseed supply situation were also bearish.
About 15,107 contracts traded on Friday, which compares with Thursday when 14,877 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 1,656 of the trades.
Milling wheat, durum and barley futures were all untraded, though the Exchange adjusted wheat and barley prices following Friday’s close.
SOYBEANS ended five to six cents per bushel higher on Friday, boosted by a USDA forecast that called for lower-than-expected domestic supplies, at the end of the current crop year.
In its monthly World Agricultural and Supply Demand Estimates the USDA pegged domestic inventories at 255 million bushels by the end of August which was below the June estimate of 330 bushels.
At the same time the USDA also predicted that the 2015 US soybean harvest would be larger than expected, which was bearish. However, at least one analyst pointed out livestock owners and poultry operators are churning through soybeans supplies at an astonishing pace.
SOYOIL futures in Chicago were five to six points higher tracking soybeans.
SOYMEAL futures posted modest gains on the back of demand from livestock owners.
CORN futures on the Chicago Board of Trade climbed five to six cents per bushel on Friday after the USDA lowered its estimate for this year’s harvest.
The USDA predicts US farmers will produce 13.53 billion bushels of corn in the fall of 2015, which was below its June outlook of 13.63 billion bushels.
The agency is also calling for lower-than-expected stockpiles of 1.599 billion bushels, down significantly from the June forecast of 1.771 billion bushels.
Wheat futures on the Chicago Board of Trade were higher early in the trading session, but ultimately ended a few cents below unchanged after traders took profits.
Global supply estimates were larger than expected which was bearish. The USDA pegged global wheat stocks at 17.4 million tonnes due to a large adjustment to Chinese ending stocks. This was a big reason why the agency boosted the all-wheat US carryout by 28 million bushels to 842 million bushels, which was 12% above stocks at the end of 2013-14, according to an analyst.
– A new report says the wheat surface of Argentina will be 8.6 million acres this growing season, which is a 20 percent reduction from last year. Above-average rainfall and political uncertainty are cited as reasons behind the reduction.
– A marketing board in France says the country is in for a big wheat harvest, despite a sharp drop in quality.
– Flour mill owners in Pakistan are protesting a proposed 5% sales tax on wheat bran.
Settlement prices are in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
