By Glen Hallick, MarketsFarm
Glacier FarmMedia MarketsFarm – Intercontinental Exchange canola futures fell back on Monday, due to record production, a lack of exports and declines in comparable oils.
Last week, Statistics Canada estimated the country’s canola harvest at 21.80 million tonnes. One analyst suggested StatCan could increase their estimate come summer.
With China absent from the Canadian export market, that huge crop could be very difficult to sell.
Losses in the Chicago soy complex and Malaysian palm oil pulled canola lower. There were small upticks in MATIF rapeseed. Declines in crude oil weighed on the vegetable oils.
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The United States Department of Agriculture is set to release its December supply and demand estimates on Tuesday. Any changes to soybeans could spill over into canola.
The Canadian dollar was a pinch higher on Monday afternoon with the loonie at 72.19 U.S. cents compared to Friday’s close of 72.15.
There were 81,740 contracts traded on Monday, compared to 88,468 on Friday. Spreading accounted for 60,212 contracts traded.
Prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne:
Price Change
Canola Jan 612.70 dn 4.20
Mar 626.10 dn 5.00
May 638.70 dn 5.10
Jul 647.40 dn 5.00
SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were weaker on Monday, ahead of a major announcement by United States President Donald Trump.
Reports said Trump will announce today a US$12 billion aid package for the country’s farmers. The assistance comes following a sharp drop in soybean prices due to sluggish soybean sales to China amid trade issues with the U.S.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture said there was a private sale for 132,000 tonnes of 2025/26 soybeans to China.
Ahead of the USDA’s monthly supply/demand report on Tuesday, the trade projected 2025/26 U.S. soybean ending stocks to increase 16 million bushels at 306 million.
The USDA released its export inspections report for the week ended Dec. 4, showing those for soybeans improved from the previous week to nearly 1.02 million tonnes. However, the year-to-date of almost 12.90 million tonnes is down by about 45 per cent from a year ago.
China said it imported 8.11 million tonnes of soybeans in November, a new record for the month and up 13.4 per cent from a year ago. China’s cumulative soybean imports for 2025/26 reached 103.79 million tonnes, up nearly seven per cent from the previous year.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said soybean planting in Argentina is 45 per cent complete. AgRural placed soybean planting in Brazil at 94 per cent finished. Both estimates are about one point from where seeding was this time last year.
CORN futures dipped on Monday, pulled lower by soybeans against a positive outlook for tomorrow’s carryover and strong exports.
Trade estimates ahead of Tuesday’s S/D report pegged 2025/26 U.S. corn ending stocks a little short of 2.15 billion bushels, down about nine million from November.
U.S. corn export inspections of 1.45 million tonnes were down slightly from last week. The cumulative total of 20.63 million tonnes are up more than 69 per cent from the same time last year
The BAGE said corn planting in Argentina at 44 per cent done.
AgRural estimates the 2025/26 Brazil corn harvest at 135.3 million tonnes, down 5.80 million from last year.
WHEAT futures were down as well on Monday, in sympathy with soy and corn.
The trade pegged U.S. wheat ending stocks at 894 million bushels, down seven million.
Outbound shipments of U.S. wheat were 393,341 tonnes, up slightly from the previous week. Cumulative inspections reached 13.63 million tonnes, an increase of 21 per cent over last year.
The planting of the French soft wheat crop was said to be virtually finished. It was rated at 96 per cent good to excellent, a dip of one point from last week.
Argus Media forecast Ukraine’s 2026/27 wheat crop at 23.90 million tonnes, up 900,000 from 2025/26. If the estimate holds it would be Ukraine’s largest wheat harvest since Russia invaded.
