Glacier FarmMedia — There were little changes to the balance sheets for all three major U.S. crops from February to March in the United States Department of Agriculture’s monthly supply/demand estimates released March 10. However, global carryout was a different story.
Corn
- Projected 2025-26 ending stocks for U.S. corn were unchanged at 2.127 billion bushels, down nine million from the average trade estimate, but well above the 1.551 billion reported for 2024-25.
- Corn production and exports were also unchanged from February at 17.021 billion and 3.3 billion bushels, respectively.
- Global corn carryout was projected at 292.75 million tonnes, up 4.77 million from February, due to increased production and an upward revision to the 2024-25 carryout, which stands at 295.82 million.
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Soybeans
- The 2025-26 soybean ending stocks estimate stayed put at 350 million bushels from last month, up six million from the average trade estimate and up 25 million from the 2024-25 figure.
- Production and exports remained the same at 4.262 billion and 1.575 billion bushels, respectively.
- Projected U.S. soyoil carryout was up 30 million pounds at 1.782 billion, while soymeal carryout was unchanged at 450 million short tons.
- The global soybean carryout estimate was trimmed by 200,000 tonnes at 125.31 million, which is 1.47 million above the upwardly revised 2024-25 carryout. Production was down one million tonnes at 427.18 million. Global soymeal carryout was down 180,000 tonnes at 19.33 million, while global soyoil carryout was up 70,000 tonnes at 6.20 million.
Wheat
- Projected U.S. wheat carryout for 2025-26 was unchanged from the previous month at 931 million bushels, up five million from the average trade estimate. Last year’s ending stocks totalled 855 million.
- Production and exports also remained the same at 1.985 billion and 900 million bushels, respectively.
- The global wheat carryout estimate was cut by 550,000 tonnes at 276.96 million despite increased production.
South America
- The USDA lifted its projected 2025-26 Brazilian corn production by one million tonnes at 132 million with ending stocks up 2.28 million tonnes at 5.96 million. In Argentina, production was down one million tonnes at 52 million with ending stocks down 800,000 tonnes at 5.09 million. Brazilian and Argentine corn production in 2024-25 were 136 million and 50 million tonnes, respectively.
- The projected Brazilian soybean crop was unchanged at 180 million tonnes with carryout also steady at 37.91 million. In Argentina, soybean production was cut by 500,000 tonnes at 48 million with ending stocks unchanged at 22.92 million. In 2024-25, Brazil and Argentina produced 171.5 million and 51.11 million tonnes of soybeans, respectively.
Grain, soy futures hit highs on war worries
Prices for fertilizer and fuel spiked as the war has closed the Strait of Hormuz, shut down fertilizer plants in the Middle East and upset shipping routes. The disruptions have left some farmers in the Northern Hemisphere scrambling for supplies just as they prepare to put seeds in the ground.
U.S. grain and soy futures touched multi-month highs on Monday, despite expectations for ample supplies, as traders worried the war would drag on and oil prices rallied. Traders also assessed the potential for U.S. farmers to cut back on plantings of corn because it requires high rates of nitrogen fertilizer.
USDA did not adjust any of its estimates in a monthly supply and demand report based on the Middle East conflict, said Mark Jekanowski, chairman of USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board.
“It’s way too early,” he said.
-With files from Tom Polansek/Reuters
