USDA adjusts supply/demand estimates

Corn/soybean yields unchanged

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Glacier FarmMedia — Corn and soybean yields in the United States were left unchanged in the latest supply/demand estimates from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, released July 11, although a reduction in harvested area led to small downward revisions to production for the crops.

Corn yields held at 181.0 bushels per acre, but production was down by 115 million bushels from the June estimate at 15.71 billion bushels. That compares with 14.867 billion bushels in 2024/25.

Soybean yields were steady at 52.5 bu./ac., with estimated production only down by five million bushels from the previous month at 4.335 billion bushels. The U.S. produced 4.366 billion bushels of soybeans in 2024/25.

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U.S. corn ending stocks for both 2024/25 and the upcoming 2025/26 marketing year were lowered to 1.340 billion and 1.66 billion bushels respectively. An increase in projected exports for the current marketing year to a record high of 2.750 billion bushels contributed to the adjustment.

Soybean ending stocks for 2024/25 were left unchanged at 350 million bushels, while the 2025/26 projected carryout was increased by 15 million from the June estimate at 310 million bushels.

Wheat

For wheat, production for 2025/26 was estimated at 1.929 billion bushels, which was up by eight million from the June forecast. Of the total, winter wheat was estimated at 1.345 billion bushels, which was down three per cent from the June estimate but less than one per cent below the 1.349 billion bushels grown the previous year.

Spring wheat production was estimated at 504 million bushels, which would be down seven per cent on the year with average yields of 51.7 bu./ac. Durum production was forecast at 79.7 million bushels for 2025/26.

World

World corn ending stocks for 2025/26 were estimated at 262.08 million tonnes, which was down by 3.16 million tonnes from the June forecast. Wheat stocks were revised to 261.52 million tonnes, down by 1.24 million tonnes. The projected soybean carryout was raised by 770,000 tonnes, to 126.07 million tonnes.

South America

The USDA raised its call on Brazil’s 2025/26 corn production to 132 million tonnes, from an earlier estimate of 130.0 million tonnes, but left its 2025/26 forecast at 131.0 million tonnes. Argentina’s corn production for both years was left unchanged at 50.0 million and 53.0 million tonnes respectively.

For soybeans, Argentina’s 2024/25 crop was up by 900,000 tonnes from June at 49.9 million tonnes, while Brazilian production held at 169.0 million tonnes. New crop soybean production for the two countries was left unchanged at 48.5 million tonnes in Argentina and 175.0 million in Brazil.

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