Reuters — U.S. soybean futures retreated on Monday from a one-week top on a lack of fresh soy sales to top buyer China and lingering doubts over whether the Asian nation will buy 12 million tonnes of the oilseed by the end of 2025, as forecast by senior U.S. officials.
Corn futures fell on profit-taking while outlooks for plentiful world grain supplies pressured wheat.
Chicago Board of Trade January soybean futures were down 9-3/4 cents at $11.28 per bushel, turning lower after an early climb to $11.42-1/4, the contract’s highest price since Nov. 20.
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Australia raises wheat harvest estimate by nearly two million tonnes
Australia’s ABARES raised its forecast for national wheat production this season by around 1.8 million tonnes to 35.6 million tonnes, cementing expectations for a bumper harvest that will add to abundant global supply and pressure prices.
CBOT March corn was down 2-3/4 cents at $4.45 a bushel, retreating after failing to push through chart resistance at its 200-day moving average near $4.49.
CBOT March wheat was down 3-1/2 cents at $5.35 a bushel.
The slowing pace of U.S. soy sales to China remained the focus of the market.
“Soybeans led the way lower on a lack of confirmation of any flash sales to China again this morning,” Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist at StoneX, wrote in a client note.
China started buying U.S. soybeans, wheat and sorghum after the U.S.-China trade truce in October. The U.S. government has confirmed over two million tonnes of soybean sales since Oct. 30.
However, a slowdown in bookings has raised fears that China could fall well short of the U.S. cabinet members’ forecast of 12 million tons of Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans by the end of this year, a target that Beijing has not confirmed.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture is still catching up with back-dated weekly export sales reports following the government shutdown. The agency reported U.S. soybean sales for the week ended Oct. 23 at 1,449,900 tonnes, in line with trade estimates, although none were booked to China.
Competition from South American crops remains a concern. StoneX, a brokerage, trimmed its forecast of Brazil’s soybean crop to 177.2 million tonnes, down from 178.9 million a month ago but still a record harvest, if realized.
StoneX estimated Brazil’s total 2025/26 corn production at 134.4 million tonnes, down 0.6 per cent from its previous monthly forecast.
Ample harvests in the Southern Hemisphere anchored wheat futures.
The Australian government’s ABARES agency raised its 2025/26 wheat production forecast by around 1.8 million tonnes to 35.6 million tonnes, cementing expectations for a bumper crop.
— Reporting by Julie Ingwersen; additional reporting by Michael Hogan, Ella Cao and Lewis Jackson
