(Resource News International) –– Large pea supplies in Western Canada could be even more burdensome in the upcoming 2010-11 crop year, as farmers will still be looking to put a pulse in their rotations despite the lower prices.
“It’s looking like we’ll have a million tonnes of peas left over by July 31,” one pea merchant said. That estimate would compare with the current Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada ending stocks forecast of 525,000 tonnes.
Pea exports to date have been running well behind the year-ago level, with the Canadian Grain Commission reporting pea exports to date of about one million tonnes. That compares with over 1.3 million at the same point the previous year.
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The likelihood of large ending stocks should keep pea prices under pressure, with green peas now trading as low as $4 per bushel in some areas.
The merchant said it’s taken farmers some time to get used to the reality of lower pea prices, but added that acres are unlikely to see much of a shift this spring.
“Guys will have to just pull the trigger, because they know they’ll be growing more peas this year, and hope for a weather event somewhere on the planet,” said the merchant.
Pea acres would likely end up “plus or minus five per cent” of the 3.76 million seeded in 2009, as “nothing else pencils out very well either,” he said.
Alberta in particular could see an increase in pea acres, he said, especially in the areas where other pulses, such as lentils, are not an option.
