MarketsFarm — ICE Futures canola contracts saw some choppy activity during the week ended Wednesday, hitting their lowest levels in nearly a month before recovering back toward the upper end of their wide sideways range.
A new production report from Statistics Canada, due out Monday (Aug. 30), could set the stage for a break one way or the other, with the nearby market focus on harvest conditions.
Drought conditions through the growing season cut into yields, with pre-report expectations calling for canola production well below the 18.7 million tonnes grown in 2020.
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However, with industry estimates coming in anywhere from 11.5 million to 16 million tonnes, any surprises in the data have the potential to spark a move in the futures.
“Guys are holding their cards tight,” said a Winnipeg-based trader, adding he was hearing mixed reports from clients of great yields in some spots that got moisture — but even worse-than-expected yields in others.
As a result, putting a number on the size of the crop would be difficult until the harvest is complete.
From a chart standpoint, the November contract finds itself in a range between $850 and $940 per tonne.
— Phil Franz-Warkentin reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.
