MarketsFarm — Canadian wheat production in 2019-20 is forecast to come in at 500,000 tonnes above an earlier forecast, according to updated supply/demand tables released Wednesday from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.
Wheat ending stocks were also raised in the report, while adjustments to the canola tables led a slight reduction to the still record-large carryout forecast.
Total Canadian wheat production for 2019-20 is now forecast at 32.5 million tonnes, which compares with the July forecast of 32 million and the year-ago level of 31.769 million. If realized, that would mark the second-largest Canadian wheat crop on record.
Of the total, durum production for 2019-20 was raised to 5.1 million tonnes, from five million in July. That compares with the 5.745 million tonnes grown the previous year.
Total Canadian wheat ending stocks for 2019-20 were raised to 5.5 million tonnes, which compares with the July forecast of 5.1 million and the 2018-19 carryout of an estimated 5.2 million.
AAFC left its canola production estimate for 2019-20 unchanged at 18.575 million tonnes, but raised its old–crop export forecast slightly. As a result, ending stocks for both 2018-19 and 2019-20 were tightened to 3.7 million and 3.775 million tonnes respectively. Both would still be record large, comparing to the previous record of 3.008 million set in 2013-14.
Statistics Canada releases its first survey-based production estimates for the 2019-20 crop year on Wednesday next week (Aug. 28).
— Phil Franz-Warkentin writes for MarketsFarm, a Glacier FarmMedia division specializing in grain and commodity market analysis and reporting.